企業價值與投資風險之關聯探討–以上市櫃半導體產業為例

The Relationship between Enterprise Value and Investment Risk: An Example for Taiwan-Listed Semiconductor Firms

唐愉絜(Yu-Chiech Tang)

指導教授 ： 李正文

中原大學/商學院/國際經營與貿易研究所/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/CYCU.2013.00352

摘要

本研究運用基本的統計方法-中央極限定理，由公開財務資訊（台灣經濟新報資料庫、台灣證券交易所）收集各項數據，研究DRAM上游產業的各項費用支出比例，及整體營收與損益概況，經由以統計軟體繪製歷史股價淨值比之圖表分析，觀察各標的公司的歷史股價淨值比分佈狀況，並計算各公司的平均值與標準差，設定買進、賣出及停損、停利的條件，並以定期定額的方式投入資金計算，其結果與大盤平均獲利作比較依據，發現可獲得較佳的報酬率。

本研究以十二年的資料追蹤比對後，可得到下列結論：
1.上市櫃公司通常財務資訊比較透明，惟半導體產業因折舊比率較一般產業高，且產品週期非常短，在公司獲利時，市場上常會給予較高的股價，容易造成股價淨值比偏高；由於投資風險的來源正是高估股價，所以這個時候買進該股，可能有短暫的獲利，但投資風險增加卻無法避免。
2.在公司開始出現虧損時，市場上常會給予較低的股價，此時股價淨值比偏低；當低於1時，代表已低於重置成本，買下股權比興建一座工廠來得划算，此時如果有背後大股東或集團支持，則股價淨值比低於1的時間不會太久
3.由於台灣的DRAM製造產業，已由全球市佔率近40%降至5%以下，訂價能力薄弱，獲利能力逐年下滑；依上市櫃規定：每股淨值低於5元將變更交易(全額交割)、淨值為負數則下市，故設定停損點有其必要性。
4.常年虧損的上市櫃公司利用本研究的投資策略，只要淨值高於5元，無變更交易風險，亦能從中獲利。

關鍵字

統計 ； 標準差 ； 平均成本法 ； 股價淨值比 ； 中央極限定理

並列摘要

The research we define the basic concepts of statistical-Central Limit Theorem , collecting the financial information from Taiwan Economic Journal(TEJ) and Market Observation Post System(M.O.P.S), According to the expenditure Ratio, overall revenue and profit and loss profile of financial statement, through statistical dispersion, calculating standard deviation and arithmetic mean of DRAM manufacturing upstream industries to analysis the historical Price-Book Ratio(PBR) of chart draw by Statistics, setting the investment conditions of stock, pouring cash by following cost averaging method. Then, it can credit better than Return On Investment（ROI）.

The research we have traced the date and process since 2000 to 2012, and obtained conclusions:
1.The usually listed companies financial information is transparent, the depreciation rate of DRAM manufacturing industries are higher than general industries. The products cycle is very short and the profit of the companies will often give higher price in the market, so the source of investment risk overestimates share price. Buying the stocks may be a short-term profit, but investment increased risk can not be avoided.
2.When companies began losses, the Price-Book Ratio will low and markets often given lower share price. If it less than 1, representation has less than replacement cost, buying stock equity is more effective than build a factory. Now, if it’s the large shareholder or group support then Price-Book Ratio’s time less than 1 will not be long.
3.DRAM manufacturing industries in Taiwan has been the global market share of nearly 40% to less than 5%, weak pricing and profitability is declining, due to the book value per share is less than 5, full-cash delivery of listed and the net worth is negative delisting, it set a stop-loss points necessary.
4.Perennial losses of listed companies using the research’s investment strategies, as long as the net value is higher than 5, there’s no transaction risk and it can also be benefited.

並列關鍵字

Central Limit Theorem ； Statistic ； Standard Deviation ； Dollar Cost Averaging ； P/B

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