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  • 學位論文

國防工業工廠生產預測決策模式之研究

A Study of Decision Making Process for the National Defense Factory Production Forecast

指導教授 : 林賜德 博士

摘要


摘要 歷年來,國防工業工廠持續不斷的提昇製造技術,與增添各式精密自動化生產機具,並廣泛運用電腦資訊整合與管理技術,同時亦結合民間產業界生產能量,建立衛星工廠體系,以逐步擴大生產效率與能量。但由於每一項武器裝備的製作都需要長期複雜的過程,而國防武器又是日趨於「少量多樣」、「需求變異性高」,並且需要「快速反應」的需求型態,為因應國軍「快速反應」的需求,接單後再生產的模式是不可能滿足需求的,而實際情況下,國防工業工廠獲得的訂單也多是非常不確定的,既不能完全憑藉著過去的需求資料,亦不能依賴國軍武器需求先期計劃,故生產規劃工作顯得更加困難。 在這種不確定性非常高的情形下,有著兩難的處境。雖然將生產規劃模式更改為「接單後生產模式」較為穩定安全,但是卻無法滿足「快速反應」的需求型態。而如果持續於需求不確定性情況下盲目生產,在有限的國防預算下,必定發生預算相互排擠,無法有效的運用在適宜的武器生產上,同時預測失準的武器彈藥無法滿足國軍所需,終將發生延宕供應國軍戰備武器的情形,所以必須亟待精進。 本研究即在建立一套國防工業工廠的生產預測決策模式,俾在實際接獲生產訂單前,先期預測訂單需求的產生,以提前開始進行生產準備或關鍵零組件之生產製造,如此充裕的前置作業時間與生產時程,始能滿足國軍武器裝備的需求。在研究的過程中,首先選擇以德爾菲法建立生產預測的評估準則;接著,以層級分析法建立評估準則的層級結構與權重;最後,再結合加權和評分法建立生產預測決策模式,並進行實例驗證,以確定生產預測決策模式的可行性。本研究並經實例驗證,證明確實能有效運用於國防工業工廠的生產預測作業,對解決需求的不確定性甚具成效。

並列摘要


Abstract Over time, the National Defense Factories have keep on promoting the manufacturing technology, enhancing the production automation and managerial skill extensively. In the mean time, group with the private sectors to build up supply chain system to improve the production efficiency and productivity. However, the production procedures of weapons are complicated, with long cycle time. Order type is small size with various items, and the stability of order is quite low, but the prompt response is required. For fill such demanding orders, “Build to Order” can’t satisfy the real practice. Under high uncertainty condition, it’s very difficult for National Defense Factory to take “Build to Plan” in production based on neither the historical records nor the demand forecast. There is a dilemma here, if we are conservative to take “Build to Order” then it’s impossible for us to for fill the prompt response requirement, but “Build to Plan” will bring us to face the budget control problem. Under the limited budget of National Defense situation, without accuracy focus, we can’t invest resource on the proper items then it will bring us fail to meet the true need of Army. The Ammunition supplies will be delayed and can’t satisfy Army’s demand, so how to improve the production forecast is urgently and most important at this moment. This research plans to set up a decision making model for the National Defense Factory Production Forecast in order to predict the demand , pull in production preparation in advance and manufacturing of some (critical) cardinal components before orders receiving . Then it will help to obtain the ample lead time for production, in turn to satisfy the demand of the weaponry. Firstly, in this research “Delphi Method “ has been applied to the estimate criterion of the production forecast. Secondly, Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to organize the aspects and weighs calculation of those estimated criterion. Finally, combining the Weighted Scoring Method to establish the decision making process of production forecast and put it into verification practically to confirm the feasibility of the decision making process of production forecast. The empirical result show that Production forecast Model really works well to solve the problems of the demand uncertainty in National Defense Factory.

參考文獻


6. 林則孟,2006,生產計畫與管理,華泰文化事業股份有限公司。
7. 張保隆、陳文賢、蔣明晃、姜齊、盧昆宏、王瑞琛,2000,生產管理,華泰文化事業股份有限公司。
23. Harold A. Linstone, 1975, The Delphi Method, Techniques and Applications, .
24. Pill, J., 1971, ”The Delphi method: Substance, context, a critique and an annotated bibliography”,Socio-Econ. Planning Science Vol.5.
26. Saaty, T.L., 1980, The Analytic Hierarchy Process, McGraw-Hill, New York.

被引用紀錄


巫月桃(2010)。影響我國國防工業能量建構關鍵因素之探討〔碩士論文,中原大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6840%2fcycu201000042
周大鈞(2010)。應用德爾菲法及分析網路程序法於半導體分析晶片缺點因子改善製程良率之研究〔碩士論文,國立虎尾科技大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0028-2907201000023200

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