摘要 近年來,美國利用弱勢美元政策轉嫁雙赤字危機。但是,美元的貶值會迫使持有美元資產的企業及國家遭受財富損失。而在全球資本市場的高度整合下,藉著龐大的國際熱錢及避險基金的流動,促使各主要貨幣升值(人民幣除外)。因此各國政府紛紛對中國大陸政府施壓,企圖迫使人民幣升值,在市場上預期人民幣不得不升值的趨勢下,造成亞洲通貨市場中的新台幣、日圓、韓圜等產生劇烈波動。 自兩岸先後於2002年加入WTO迄今,台灣與中國大陸均逐步開放內銷市場,台商的經營策略亦由早期的以歐、美為出口重心,而改變為以歐、美、中為主要出口地區。因此中國人民銀行於2005年7月所宣佈的調升人民幣兌美元2%之措施,的確對台商造成很大的衝擊。 本研究主要在探討匯率波動及企業特性對台商企業營收盈餘的影響。實證結果發現,在61家樣本公司中有49家有顯著的外匯風險曝露,顯著比率達80.32%,其中電子業有26家,非電子業有23家。 本研究並探討影響外匯風險曝露程度的決定因素有哪些?結果發現,外匯風險曝露與公司規模、外銷比例、及大陸投資涉入程度有關。其中外銷比例愈大或規模愈大,則外匯風險曝露愈大;但在大陸投資的台商涉入程度愈高,外匯風險所受到的曝露程度反而愈小,驗證台商企業採國際分工「台灣接單、大陸生產」之營運模式,藉由美元資產(應收帳款)及美元負債(應付帳款)之方式以達避險之目的,從而亦降低外匯風險曝露的程度。
Abstract Recently, the government of the United States attempted to devaluate the US dollars to overcome the crisis of double deficits. However, the US-dollar devaluation caused the international enterprises and other nations who hold US dollars assets suffering a loss of their wealth. Owing to the fact that there is a close integration for the global capital markets, the huge amount of international hot money and hedging funds lead the appreciation of most major currencies except RMB. Therefore, the US and other countries’ governments convey a lot of pressure to the Chinese government to appreciate their exchange rate of RMB versus US dollars. Consequently, the expectation of RMB’s appreciation has created dramatic fluctuations in NT dollars, Japanese Yen and Korean Wons at the Asian currency market. Since Taiwan and China had participated in WTO in 2002, Taiwan and China continuously opened their domestic markets. For example, Taiwan’s exporting policy has transformed from emphasizing international trade with USA and Europe to including China as one of the major partners. Therefore, the appreciation of the RMB dollar converting to US dollar by 2% in July, 2005 indeed had a great impact on Taiwanese exporting companies. This study attempts to examine the impact of the exchange rate fluctuations and the characteristics of enterprises on the earning incomes of Taiwanese corporations which have a branch in China. Empirical results show that the fluctuations of exchange rate affect the rates of return on common stocks for 49 out of 61 Taiwanese multinational companies, suggesting a significant ratio reaches 80.32%. Among these 49 companies, there are 26 electronic companies and 23 non-electronic companies. This work also explores the determinant factors of the foreign exchange rate risk exposure and finds that the size of the company, the percentage of the exports to sale to domestics have positive significant relationships with the exchange rate risk exposure. However, the findings indicate that the companies with high business involvement in China have lower foreign exchange rates risk exposure than those companies which have low business involvement in China during the same period. This result confirms with the following policy of Taiwanese international enterprises, namely, “Receiving orders in Taiwan and manufacturing products in China”. The main purpose of this policy is to hedging the foreign exchange rate risk by receiving assets (accounts receivable) in US dollars and paying liabilities (accounts payable) also in US dollars.
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