應用和聲演算法探討溫室氣體排放限制下 之電力系統容量擴增計畫

A Study of Power System Capacity Expansion under Limitation of Greenhouse Gas Emission - Applying Harmonic Search Algorithm

徐開評(Kai-Ping Hsu)

指導教授 ： 張美香

中原大學/工學院/土木工程研究所/碩士(2009年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200901108

摘要

摘要 面對石化燃料價格不斷上漲的趨勢，以及國際溫室氣體排放限制等問 題，促使人們正視電力結構必須調整的問題，逐漸由高汙染的發電方式改 變為採取低污染或無污染的方式進行。然而，能源結構與產業政策的調整 需要十到十五年的時間，期間充滿許多不確定因素的影響，故本研究應用 依時性隨機規劃模式探討在二氧化碳排放量限制下之電力系統擴增計畫問 題，一併考慮電力需求、石化燃料價格、水力及風力發電效用等不確定因 素於電力系統擴建計畫中，配合情境分析方法，規劃各電廠、各種發電型 態(包括火力發電、水力發電、核能發電、風力發電等)未來之裝置容量。因 為本問題為NP-hard，本研究發展出一以和聲搜尋機制為基礎之啟發式演算 法進行求解，並透過數值例測試證明此演算法之正確性。經由參數分析進 行此和聲搜尋法之參數設定，以提升其求解品質與運算速度。此外，藉由 敏感度分析了解採用太陽能發電系統、生質能發電系統及高污染發電機組 退休等因素對電力裝載計畫之影響。最後，則根據本研究之測試結果提出 一些結論與建議。

關鍵字

溫室氣體排放限制 ； 電力系統擴建 ； 隨機規劃 ； 和聲搜尋演算法

並列摘要

Abstract
The raising price of fossil fuels, the uncertainty of power demand and
supply in future, and the international limitation of greenhouse gas emission
by Kyoto Protocol prompt people to face the problem of transferring the
structure of power system. Non-polluted or Low-polluted power generating
should replace high-polluted one in the long run. However, it will take ten
to fifteen years to adjust the structure of energy systems and industrial
strategies because of much uncertainty. This thesis proposes a
time-dependent stochastic programming model to formulate the power
expansion problem under limitation of greenhouse gas emission. The
uncertainty of producing cost, green power supply, and regional electric
loads in future can be considered simultaneously. By using scenario
analysis to present environment parameters, we can determine the
appropriate capacity allocation among different methods of power
generation, such as thermal power generating, hydraulic power generating,
nuclear power generating, and wind power generating. Because this
problem is NP-hard, this study develops a meta-heuristic algorithm based
on harmony search to solve it. Several numerical examples are utilized to
demonstrate the validness of the developed algorithm. The parameter
analysis of this harmony search-based algorithm is done to increase the
quality and the speed of searching processes. Sensitivity analysis is
performed to understand the influence of increasing the renewable power
generation, and decreasing the capacity of high-polluted electric generating
sets. Finally, some conclusions and suggestions are provided according to
the testing results.

並列關鍵字

Harmonic Search Algorithm ； Power System Capacity Expansion ； Limitation of Greenhouse Gas Emission ； Stochastic Programming

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18. 賴靜煜 (2006)，應用隨機規劃探討溫室氣體排放限制下之電力系統容量