祝融助漲或燒掉股價？以台灣企業火災事故為例

Increase or Decrease the Stock Price? Take Fire Accident in Taiwanese Companies as an Example

黃家琪(Chia-Chi Huang)

指導教授 ： 劉文謙

中原大學/商學院/財務金融研究所/碩士(2018年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201800246

摘要

本研究探討個別公司未預期的事故發生，會對企業的股價報酬率造成什麼樣的衝擊？並手動收集整理過去各家公司曾經發生過的火災事故為例。藉由事件研究法分析是否火災事故，會有異常報酬率的產生，並更進一步依照公司特性，或新聞報導及公司聲明當中所揭露的資訊做劃分，例如：是否特別公告有投保、損失是否由達到特定金額、是否有人員傷亡、是否宣稱對未來營運無影響及是否屬於火險高需求型產業等，探討在不同的情況下，是否對於企業的影響程度有所差異。再透過迴歸分析檢驗影響異常報酬率的因素，以設定虛擬變數的方式判別各項資訊對於異常報酬率的影響程度。本研究的結果發現火災事故的發生確實會對公司造成衝擊，事件日有顯著且負向的異常報酬率產生，但會根據不同的公司特性及事故的資訊揭露程度而有所差異。因此，公司對於可能發生的意外事故應處以謹慎的態度，盡可能地降低此種風險發生的機率，以確保股東的權益，及避免影響投資人的情緒與決策。

關鍵字

火災事故 ； 事件研究法 ； 股東權益 ； 異常報酬率

並列摘要

This study explores the unexpected impact of individual companies, will impact the company's stock return? And manually collect fire accidents that the companies has happened in the past. Used the Event Study analysis of fire incidents whether will generate abnormal rates of return, and further divided according to company characteristics and statements or information disclosed in news reports. For example, whether there were special announcements for insurance or if the losses of fire accidents have reached a certain amount of money, whether there were casualties, whether it claims to have no impact on future operations, and whether it belong to a high-demand type of fire insurance industry, etc., it is discussed whether there are differences in the degree of influence on the company under different circumstances. Then, through regression analysis of dummy variables, examined what the factors affecting the abnormal return rate, and determine the impact of various information on the abnormal return rate. The results of this study found that the occurrence of a fire accident did impact the company, and there was a significant and negative abnormal rate of return on the event day, but it varied according to the characteristics of different companies and the degree of information disclosure of the accident. Therefore, the company should be cautious about possible accidents and try to reduce the probability of such risks occurring to ensure the shareholders’ equity and avoid affecting investors' sentiment and decision.

並列關鍵字

Abnormal rates of return ； Event Study ； fire incidents ； shareholders’ equity

參考文獻

一、英文文獻

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