龍虎年與人力資本

The Years of Dragon and Tiger and Human Capital

劉祐丞(Yu-Cheng Liu)

指導教授 ： 陳妍蒨

國立暨南國際大學/管理學院/經濟學系/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6837/NCNU.2015.00018

摘要

由 1976 年開始，十二年為一周期的龍年嬰兒潮成為華人世界特有的現象。根據國外研究發現華人地區在龍年生育變動效果顯著，探究原因認為來自華人文化信仰行為的影響。華人相信龍年孩童具有較高稟賦資質，但在針對龍年出生對收入表現影響研究發現並無顯著影響力，而國內研究雖有針對龍虎兩生肖對於生育率證實具有顯著影響之研究，但尚無針對龍虎生肖對於人力資本之間關係的實證研究，故本文將利用 2002 年至 2013 年度的「臺灣社會變遷基本調查」，共計 12年的資料作為研究樣本。經篩選保留 21,519 筆具個體家庭背景的個體樣本資料並採二元選擇模型(Probit Model)做實證分析。首先，在全樣本迴歸結果，發現生肖屬龍對於「取得大學以上學歷」存在顯著正向影響力，但龍虎兩生肖皆對「達三萬五千元平均收入以上」的機率不存在顯著影響。其次，在樣本分群迴歸結果，發現在社會與家庭資源相對充沛的條件下，生肖龍對於教育成就並無顯著影響力，而生肖虎僅於部分情境中對於教育成就有負向影響；反之，在相對資源匱乏條件下，生肖龍虎效果得到強化而對於教育成就存在顯著影響。實證結果說明龍虎生肖對於教育過程中存在顯著影響，而對於最終收入表現上並沒有顯著影響力，故得以說明龍虎生肖對於最終人力資本的並不存在顯著影響。

關鍵字

臺灣社會變遷基本調查 ； 龍虎年 ； 人力資本

並列摘要

Beginning from 1976, the baby boom in Dragon Years has became an unique phenomenon in the Chinese world. Foreign research found that Chinese region have significant fertility changes in Dragon Year. This is because that Chinese’s people believe that children born in Dragon year have higher endowment qualifications. However, research found there is no significant influence on revenue between children of dragon years and children of non-dragon year. Although domestic research found that Dragon have significant impact on fertility, none of them has pointed out the relationship between the zodiac of Dragon and Tiger and human capital. This paper uses "2002-2013 Taiwan Social Change Survey" to analysis the correlation between zodiac and human capital. There are the information of individual family backgrounds data of 21,519. The result of Probit Model shows that full sample regression, which found that the zodiac of Dragon person has higher possibility to “obtain a university degree.”. But the zodiac of Dragon and Tiger person has no significant impact on the changes of “personal income higher than $35,000 per month.” The result in the in the subsample shows that under the abundant resources of social and family, the zodiac of Dragon person has no significant impact on the educational attainment, and the zodiac of Tiger person has negative effect significanty on the educational attainment. In contrast, the effect of Dragon and Tiger has strengthened, and has significant impact on the educational attainment for children from poor families. The summary of this study shows that the zodiac of Dragon and Tiger has significant impact on the part of the educational process, but has no significant impact on the income, so the zodiac of Dragon and Tiger has significant influence on the ultimate human capital.

並列關鍵字

Taiwan Social Change Survey ； The Years of Dragon and Tiger ； Human Capital

參考文獻

一. 中文部分

裘雁鈴 (2005)，《臺灣地區生育事件之季節模式與變遷分析》，國立政治大學社會學研究所碩士論文。

藍銘偉 (2003)，《臺灣、美國與瑞典生育率模型之研究》，國立政治大學統計研究所碩士論文。

黃修梅 (2006)，《臺灣婦女教育程度與龍虎年效應對生育率之影響》，國立政治大學經濟學研究所碩士論文。

陳筠婷 (2011)，《手足效果對教育成就之影響》，國立暨南國際大學經濟學系研究所碩士論文。