高股息公司股利支付影響因素之研究－Logistic迴歸模型

Influencing Factors of Paying High Cash Dividends-Logistic Regression Model

胡益逢(I-Feng Hu)

指導教授 ： 蔡明憲

國立暨南國際大學/管理學院/財務金融學系/碩士(2008年)

摘要

會計盈餘雖可代表公司獲利，但此盈餘訊息可能為盈餘管理結果，而無法顯現真實獲利情況，如Lilien、Mellman和Pastena (1988)指出公司經營不善，會操作盈餘以提高收入；然而，公司唯有營運產生利潤，才有能力發放股息，所以股息被視為真正獲利的評斷標準，因此投資人會以股息評價公司，給予高股息正面肯定，並對減少股息的訊號持負面的看法。在此情況下，公司為了避免股息過高，未來必須減少的可能性，將不輕易發放高股息，保持於合理水準之內。基於高股息公司承受龐大股息負擔，本文因此探討財務特性對股息發放的影響，並藉由特性解說公司發放高股息的行為；此外也希望利用前述財務特性，比較高低股息公司的差異，能以此特性判別公司為高股息收益，預測公司下一年度為高股息收益的機率，因此本文進一步使用羅吉斯迴歸分析。羅吉斯迴歸的結果顯示美國的獲利性、成長機會、規模負向影響股息收益，持有現金和負債比重則為正向影響；至於台灣則只有成長機會，會影響公司股息收益。因此根據結果，僅能在美國市場以羅吉斯迴歸建構模型，預測公司為高股息收益的機率。

關鍵字

股息收益率 ； 高股息 ； 羅吉斯迴歸

並列摘要

The real profits can’t be observed since the managers can manipulate the company’s accounting earning. Therefore, investors need to take dividends as another representative of earning ability. In signaling theory, if companies distribute high dividends, they will receive excellent appreciation form the market. But if the dividends can’t be maintained at a certain level, the company will result in a negative evaluation. So companies need to maintain the dividends policy for sustaining their stock price at a certain level. In this thesis, the financial factors are used to explain the cause of dividend payout policy. Besides, we want to understand if the financial factors will be the difference between high dividend companies and low dividend companies, so that we can use them to forecast the probability of paying high dividends. Based on that reason, we use logistic regression to explain companies’ dividend yield. Our logistic regression conclusions indicate that dividend payout of U.S. firms are negatively affected by their profit, growth opportunity and size, and the firms are positively affected by their cash ratio and debt ratio. But with regard to Taiwan firms, it only exhibits that growth opportunity is an influencing factor of dividend payout. So, on the basis of the results, we can only use logistic model to forecast the probability of high dividend yield in U.S. companies.

並列關鍵字

dividend yield ； high cash dividend ； Logistic regression model

參考文獻

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