土石流自主防災社區耐災能力評估與風險分級管理之探討

Study on Assessment of Disaster Resilience and Development of Risk-Based Management for Debris Flow Disaster Resistant Community

紀治宇(Chih-Yu Chi)

指導教授 ： 陳皆儒

國立暨南國際大學/科技學院/土木工程學系/碩士(2019年)

https://doi.org/10.6837/ncnu201900085

摘要

自85年賀伯颱風發生後，土石流一詞在媒體宣傳之下逐漸受到國人的重視，颱風豪雨期間土石流災害持續影響國內具土石流潛勢溪流之村里，災害來臨前如果民眾可以做到自主警戒、自主疏散的工作，將可能大幅減少人員傷亡。水土保持局自96年起推動自主防災社區宣導，期望能夠透過強化村里自主防災能力，推動自主防災社區，提升民眾面對土石流災害時的耐災能力。
然而，各村里之先天環境條件不盡相同，自主防災社區推動後的成效也不盡相同，為使主管機關後續推動能有系統化的策略，需有耐災能力分級資料做為參考。本研究認為應該盤點現有相關資料、普查轄內土石流災害潛勢村里現況，對土石流潛勢溪流之村里進行耐災能力評估，建立土石流自主防災社區分級輔導機制有其必要性。
本研究利用層級分析法(AHP)進行耐災能力評估，並對村里進行風險分級管理提出建議。透過專家問卷的結果，計算出村里耐災能力三個等級分別為高146處、中294處、低147處。接著運用風險矩陣概念將耐災能力以及保全對象人數納入考量，得到社區風險等級分別為高261處、中202處、低124處，並且根據不同的風險等級條件提出四大項管理建議，應能夠有效協助自主防災社區推動策略之擬定。

關鍵字

自主防災社區 ； 階層分析法 ； 耐災能力 ； 風險

並列摘要

The term "debris flow" draw the attention of the general public in Taiwan due partly to the high media publicity in the wake of the Typhoon Herb in 1996. Villages with debris flow potential streams are prone to this type of disaster in events of typhoon or heavy rain. Self-alert and precautious evacuation has been found to be the effective approach for the debris flow disaster. An integrated solution is the establishment of the disaster resistant community, which has been seen the promotion by the Bureau of Soil and Water Conservation Since 2007. The goal of establishing the disaster resistant community is to strengthen the independent disaster prevention capability of the resident so as to upgrade the disaster resilience of a debris flow potential village.
However, results of the debris flow disaster resistant community initiatives may vary. This is attributed to the difference in environment and the general background among villages. As the promotion of the disaster resistant community for debris flow potential villages is a continual effort, a classified managing system is required for effective administration of the effort. In this study, it is proposed to study for development of a risk-based assessment to rate the status of the debris flow disaster resistant communities and development of a risk-based management system for classified administration of the villages.
In this study, the assessment of the disaster resistant capability is based on expert elicitation. First, a round table meeting of the experts help identify ten factors that would be included in the evaluation of the disaster resistant. An inventory of values with respect to the factors then was developed for quantitative evaluation. Importance of factors was studied using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method, which yields the weights of each factor. The index related to the disaster resistance is then computed, and then villages were grouped into three levels of disaster resistance.
The rating results in terms of disaster capability would classed 146, 294, and 147 villages as high, medium, and low, respectively. Adding another dimension on risk consequence, the villages also were rated for the risk level. There are 261, 202, and 124 villages rated as high, medium, and low risks, respectively. In this study, relevant tasks also are proposed for differing approaches on disaster resistant community promotion.

並列關鍵字

Disaster Resistant Community ； AHP ； Resilience ； Risk

參考文獻

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