信用管道與消費模式之探討

遵循貨幣經濟學相關文獻可知，貨幣政策的施行可能影響經濟活動，影響的機制可能透過信用管道、利率管道、匯率管道…等過程來傳遞。本文研究之主要目的即欲藉由貨幣政策經信用管道的傳遞機制，以觀察消費者借貸行為，其行為模式之影響程度。理論上，本文以恆常性所得假說的觀點為基礎，以架構三個考量不完全借貸市場的模型，用以探討金融加速因子的存在與否，對於經濟體系的影響是否具有加劇或是減緩的影響效果。實證上，本文利用一般動差法 (generalized method of moments) 的估計方式，且採用台灣的實際資料作為研究對象藉以估計與檢測。實證結果可得知，金融加速因子的存在，會使得原本已惡化的經濟情況，會有更加劇烈的影響結果。該結果顯示，銀行調節放款供給的多寡，會大大的影響民間消費行為，而政府便可因應不同的經濟情況，進而施行適宜的貨幣政策；尤其是透過信用管道機制，來影響經濟水準，以達到政策施行的目標。

關鍵字

信用管道、消費模式、外部融資貼水

並列摘要

According to the relevant literature on monetary economics, the monetary policy may influence the economic activities through the interest rate channel, the credit channel, the exchange rate channel and so on. The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate how the consumer lending behavior affects his patterns through the transmission mechanism. Theoretically, on the basis of permanent income hypothesis, this study builds up three types of models associated with incomplete financial market in order to discuss whether the existence of financial accelerator has some amplified or alleviated influences on economic activities. In the analysis of empirical work, this research uses the generalized method of moments to estimate the models and conduct hypothesis testing, taking Taiwan’s data as an example. The results support that the existence of financial accelerator will relatively aggravate the degenerated economic situation. The conclusions imply that the willingness of the banks to lend might influence the private consumption patterns, and thereby the government could implement the appropriate monetary policy to influence the economics, especially through the credit channel, achieving the goals of policies.