家戶儲蓄、住宅租擁選擇與貸款選擇

本研究採用行政院主計處2000年「家庭收支調查」原始磁帶資料，以多項式logit模型和巢式logit模型估計家戶特性、人口結構對於租擁選擇決策的交互影響關係。發現家戶總所得、人口結構對於租擁選擇決策有顯著的影響。接著利用最小平方法和Heckman調整樣本偏誤方法估計不同住宅型態和所得結構家戶與儲蓄的關係。發現擁屋無貸款家庭儲蓄最高，其中兩代有所得家庭儲蓄高於一代有所得家庭，且家庭人口數、所得與儲蓄呈正向關係。此外，將擁屋貸款家庭的貸款支出加回可支配所得重新估算，發現儲蓄率上升，顯示擁屋貸款家庭具有強迫儲蓄的傾向。

關鍵字

租擁選擇；人口結構；儲蓄

並列摘要

The survey adopted“the Survey data of Family Income and Expenditure of Taiwan, 2000”. We use the multinominal logit model and the nested logit model to estimate families’s choice of housing tenure in a cross affection between different household characteristics and different demographic structure. Moreover, it is found that household income and demographic structure play significant roles on the behavior of tenure choice. We, then, use the ordinary least squares (OLS) and Heckman two-stage sample selection model to analyze and discuss household saving behavior in different tenure choice and income structure composition. The conclusion of this research appears that the household owners without mortgage have the highest saving rate. While the two income generation’s saving rate is higher than that of the one income generation’s, and both of household population and household income have positive effect on household saving. On the other hand, we add the mortgage payment of house owners with mortgage to disposable income and found the rise in saving rate, which implies the existence of a forced savings tendency among household with mortgages.