建立法拍屋拍定價格指數之研究-以台北市為例

A Study of Foreclosure Final Bid Price Index– The Example of Taipei City

高啟原(Chi Yuan Kao)

指導教授 ： 施信佑

國立暨南國際大學/管理學院/經營管理碩士在職專班/碩士(2011年)

摘要

本研究經由收集台北市於民國90-99年的法院拍定案件進行實證分析，透過EViews計量軟體經過測試，找出影響法拍屋拍定價格的關鍵因子，進而建立法拍屋特徵價格模型，並經由法拍屋特徵價格模型推估得到民國90年第一季至民國99年第四季共四十季之法拍標準不動產之價格，並結合每一季拍定的法拍屋數量，以民國90年第一季為基期，利用指數公式編製出法拍屋拉氏指數、裴氏指數及費雪指數。
而後以所編製的法拍屋拍定價格拉氏指數為例，分別與總體經濟因素及其他房價指數進行比較，比較的方式有(1)指數間直接比較(2)與前一季變動差異比較(3)與基期變動差異比較。
　　總結本研究的主要結論如下:
一、模型編製方面
1.以特徵價格法搭配指數公式可作為編製法拍屋拍定價格指數之
方法，以了解長時間法拍屋拍定價格指數的趨勢方向。
2.建物面積、拍定次數、地上樓層數或區位為編製法拍屋價格指
數之關鍵變數。
二、與總體經濟因素比較
法拍屋拍定價格指數的波動將小於景氣指標變動的波動，與
中央銀行重貼現率、擔保放款率、基準放款利率呈現反向關係，
與不動產市場面供需變動方向及趨勢一致。
三、與其他房價指數之關係
經由實證分析後發現法拍屋拍定價格指數與其他房價指數有
一定程度的關聯，未來可藉由法拍屋拍定指數的建立來預測中古
屋及預售屋房價的趨勢。
四、經由本研究之實證分析可歸納出，近年來台北市的法拍屋數量雖
然有減少的趨勢，但拍定價格卻明顯有上升的趨勢，藉由法拍屋
拍定價指數的編製，可判斷出不動產市場中另外一個次市場的房
價趨勢，配合代表中古屋價格趨勢的信義房價指數及預售屋價格
趨勢的國泰房價指數來了解整體不動產市場價格的走向，做為未
來政府部門發布不動產價格指數之參考。

關鍵字

特徵價格法 ； 法拍屋 ； 拍定價格 ； 價格指數

並列摘要

In this study, We have collected the Foreclousure final bid cases for empirical analysis through the periods of 2001-2010 from the Taipei City, measured through the EViews software tested to identify the impact of the key factors of Foreclosure Final Bid Price Index, and establish a foreclosure hedonic price model, and the hedonic price model estimated by foreclosure from 2001Q1 to 2010 Q4 making 40 quarters of the Foreclousure standard real estate prices, and with each season the number of foreclosure numbers given to 2001Q1 for the base period, and set up for Foreclosure Final Bid Price Index from the preparation of Laspeyres index、Passche index and Fisher index.
For example then prepared respectively to Foreclosure Final Bid Price Index -Laspeyres index, and the overall price index and other economic factors to compare, compare the way.
(1) The direct comparison between the index
(2) Differences in comparison with the previous quarter change
(3) Differences in comparison with changes in the base period.
Summarizes the main conclusions of this study are as follows：
一、The hedonic price model prepared
1.The hedonic price method with the index formula can be used as the preparation of Foreclosure Final Bid Price Index method, foreclosures take a long time to understand the trends set the direction of the price index
2.Buildings area, the times of make bids, the number on the ground floor or location will effect Foreclosure Final Bid Price Index for the preparation of the key variables.
二、Compared with the overall economic factors
Foreclosure Final Bid Price Index given the volatility of the price index will be less than the volatility of changes in economic indicators, and the central bank discount rate, secured loans rate, the benchmark lending rate showed inverse relationship with the real estate market supply and demand side changes direction and trend.
三、Relationship with other price indices
Through empirical analysis found that foreclosure film set price index and other price indices associated with a certain degree, the future can be determined by Foreclosure Final Bid Price Index to establish the index to predict Re-house and pre-sale homes price trends.
四、Through empirical analysis of this study can be summarized, although the number of foreclosures in recent years, Taipei has a decreasing trend, but the film is obviously a fixed price rise, price indices by making the preparation of foreclosure, may determine real estate market in another sub-market price trend, with the price trends on behalf for Re-house price index of Sinyi Housing Price Index and house price trends on behalf for pre-sale price index of Cathay Pacific to understand the trend of the overall real estate market prices, as the government released the next property price index for reference.

並列關鍵字

Hedonic price method ； Foreclosures ； Final bid price ； Housing price index

參考文獻

一、中文

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2.王翰瑩，(2002)，「競價拍賣制度下投標者行為差異之探討」，國立政治大學財務管理學系碩士論文。

3.李月華，(2000)，「台北市住宅價格模式之研究」，淡江大學管理科學學系博士論文。

4.周佳穎，(2008)，「法拍屋拍定機率之研究-以台北市為例」，世新大學經濟學研究所碩士論文。