全球化下區域間失業率之差異－以臺灣各縣市為例

THE DIFFERENCES IN REGIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNDER GLOBALIZATION: A CASE STUDY OF THE COUNTIES IN TAIWAN

李欣聰(Cing-Cong Li)

指導教授 ： 方振瑞

國立臺北大學/社會科學學院/經濟學系/碩士(2008年)

摘要

臺灣在國際化基礎建設上與全球接軌之程度不落人後，努力在全球化過程中取得優越地位，但其過程亦可能產生失業、貧窮與不平等之問題。近年臺灣地區失業率有逐漸上升趨勢，各縣市之間的表現更是大相逕庭。本文採用臺灣23個縣市自1987-2007年失業率及區域特徵變數，加上全球化指標及全國性總體變數建構出長期追蹤資料，分別使用複迴歸模型之個體資料（Micro-Data）及資料追蹤法模型（Panel-Data Model）進行估計。研究結果顯示，貿易依存度上升與對外投資金額增加等全球化指標的變動的確對於各縣市失業率會產生顯著正向之影響。外人投資金額增加則有利於國內的勞動需求，改善國內勞動失業問題。全國性勞動政策如訂定基本工資及引進外籍勞工等，對國內就業之排擠效果並不明顯。而總合需求部份如固定資本形成及貨幣供給的增加，皆會帶動國內之勞動需求，有利於各縣市失業問題的改善。至於區域特性變數方面，高等教育水準比率與失業率並無一定之關聯性，而服務業人口比率與失業率則呈現顯著之正向關係。最後值得注意的是，各縣市間失業率之區域固定效果，具有相當程度之差異。各縣市間失業率差異，亦有相當程度係因各縣市本身所具有之固定特性不同所造成。

關鍵字

全球化 ； 固定效果模型 ； 區域間失業率

並列摘要

Taiwan had constructed international infrastructure actively and tried to obtain a superior position to other countries in the globalization process, but the process possibly accompanies unemployment, destitution, and wage inequality. Recently the unemployment rates in Taiwan shows an increasing tendency, and the representation between unemployment rates of the counties in Taiwan also has variations. We use 23 counties unemployment rates and regional specific data, the indexes of globalization, and the macroeconomic variables in Taiwan from 1987-2007. Then we construct a micro-data model and panel-data model. The result of this discussion shows that increasing in the dependence on foreign trade and foreign investment (outward) will bring about a bad effect to the unemployment rates of the counties. Increasing in the foreign investment (inward) will be beneficial to improve the unemployment. The labor policies such as the law of minimum wage, and foreign labor, both have no clear effect with the employment problem. Then we focus on the regional variables, there is no strong relationship between tertiary education ratio and unemployment rates, but service industry ratio and unemployment rates would change in the same direction. Eventually, something particularly noteworthy in this paper is that the regional fixed-effect of unemployment rates has obvious difference between counties. And we conclude that this situation was caused by the different fixed characteristics of each county.

並列關鍵字

Globalization ； Fixed-Effect Model ； Regional Unemployment Rates

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