水資源是環境中最為重要且有限的自然資源。臺灣地區由於先天地形環境的特性,且降雨時空分配不均,導致枯水期經常面臨用水緊縮、缺水的困境。據研究顯示,若臺灣經濟持續發展,年所得提高至3萬美元,對於水資源的需求勢必會增加,估計生活用水量的上限值約出現在2021年,年合計將達37.8億噸,較2001年的實際用水量36億噸增加,也就是說,生活用水量會在20年內增加1.8億噸的用水需求。由於整體社會、經濟的快速發展,生活用水量急遽成長使得用水需求接近水資源供應的上限,如何得知生活用水型態與用水量之間的變化將是決策單位刻不容緩面對的問題。 影響生活用水的因子眾多且複雜,涉及社會、經濟、自然環境、政策等不同層面,且具有交互影響的特性;因此,單純推估需水量並不足以清楚瞭解面對未來快速變化的社會環境,生活用水影響因子對用水量之衝擊。本研究回顧國、內外相關研究,歸納出探討生活用水相關的因子和推估方法,並透過基本資料統計分析推估未來生活用水量,並透過系統思維方式建構生活用水的因果環路圖,以釐清在整個用水系統中的關鍵因子為何。 透過本研究可知每人每日生活用水量與教育程度和家戶所得總額有高度相關性,估計至2020年每人每日生活用水量為258.19公升,距離政策目標250公升尚有一段距離,而透過系統思維所建構的生活用水環路中能發現,工業用水回收再利用環路將是影響未來用水量的重要因子。
Water is the most critical natural resource on the world. Due to the native physical environment characteristic in Taiwan, the distribution of rainfall time and space are quite unequal, it makes people may facing the dilemma of water use restriction and water shortage. According to the study of Water Resources Agency (WRA), if the economic continues developing, domestic water upper limits will be 3.78 billion tonnes by 2021. Wholly society will under a great pressure of water use, so policy makers may concern how domestic water use change in the future. The amount and behavior of domestic water consumption is determined by a great variety of factors including socioeconomic, psychological, and policy instruments levels. Therefore estimation water consumption can’t clearly understand the interactions between factors. To do so, this paper review the relevant studies and estimate future domestic water consumption by statistical analysis, and using system thinking in order to built domestic water casual loop diagram. Finally, the study conclude that the liter per capita per day (LPCD) is highly relevant to education level and household income, it is estimate the LPCD will reach 258.19 liter by 2020, and in the domestic water casual loop diagram, industry water use casual loop is the key factor.
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