台灣參與區域全面經濟夥伴協定 (RCEP) 之經濟影響評估：不同勞動市場設定之比較分析

A CGE Analysis on Taiwan's Participation in Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: A Comparison Analysis under Different Labor Market Specifications

廖俊皓(Chun-Hao Liao)

指導教授 ： 李叢禎

國立臺北大學/社會科學學院/經濟學系/碩士(2015年)

摘要

近年來，亞洲國家間之經濟合作與貿易自由化發展快速，目前尤以區域全面經濟夥伴(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership，RCEP)協定最受矚目。有鑑於台灣高度之對外貿易依存度，且台灣與 RCEP 成員國間貿易與產業分工關係密切，若能積極爭取加入RCEP協定，將有助於台灣總體經濟及產業的發展。為了解RCEP對於台灣經濟之影響全貌，本論文採用全球多部門可計算一般均衡(Computable General Equilibrium，CGE)模型-「全球貿易分析模型 」(Global Trade Analysis Project，GTAP) 進行 RCEP的經濟影響評估，主要貢獻為闡明不同勞動市場設定如何影響評估結果，為達成此一研究目的，本論文設立四種不同勞動市場情境，包括充分就業設定、實質工資僵固設定、修正勞動稟賦上限之實質工資僵固設定以及工資曲線設定，模擬台灣與RCEP成員國間關稅與補貼等貿易障礙移除，對於台灣經濟之影響。
　　茲將本論文數值模擬結果主要結論摘要如下。首先，在實質工資僵固設定下，若就業量擴張效果超過勞動稟賦上限，將使得模擬結果有過度膨脹之疑慮，此時需要加入稟賦限制修正此一問題。其次，台灣與 RCEP成員國簽屬自由貿易協定，有助於提升實質 GDP，且當加入未充分就業機制後，可以捕捉貿易自由化所誘發之勞動就業增加效果，實質GDP成長將更為顯著。第三，工資曲線設定下，各變數模擬結果皆介於充分就業設定與實質工資僵固設定之間，此現象可由三種設定下就業量變動差異解釋之。最後，在工資曲線設定下，彈性參數數值大小是影響就業量變動的關鍵因素，本研究進一步執行敏感度分析，發現工資曲線的彈性參數值採用極端小(大)的數值時，所獲致之模擬結果相當接近實質工資僵固(充分就業)設定下之結果。綜上所述，勞動市場設定對於自由貿易協定之評估結果有顯著影響，建議後續相關研究應參酌各國勞動市場實際狀況及資料，建立合宜的模擬情境，以精確捕捉貿易自由化之經濟影響全貌。

關鍵字

工資僵固 ； 可計算一般均衡 ； 區域全面經濟夥伴協定 ； 工資曲線

並列摘要

In recent years, there is a rapid development in the economic cooperation and trade liberalization among the Asian countries. Particularly, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has drawn considerable attention. In view of the fact that Taiwan has high degree of dependence on foreign trade and a close industrial cooperation with the RCEP member countries, Taiwan’s participation in the RCEP is expected to benefit its macro-economy and industrial development. This thesis adopts a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, named Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), to analyze the economy-wide impact of Taiwan’s participation in RCEP. The main purpose is to highlight the significance of labor market specification. To achieve such a research goal, we design four simulation scenarios to simulate the impact of Taiwan’s participation in the RCEP, consisting of full employment, real wage rigidity, real wage rigidity considering the capacity of labor supply, and wage curve.
The main conclusions drawn from the numerical results are summarized as follows. First, the economic impacts might be overestimated in the scenario of wage rigidity without considering the capacity of labor supply. To fix this problem, it is necessary to account for the availability of unemployed labor forces. Second, the RCEP will benefit all participation countries in terms of real GDP growth. In the case of underemployment, the economic benefits are more significant as a result of an increase in the labor employment. Third, the simulation results under the scenario of wage curve lie between those under full employment and those under real wage rigidity. The discrepancy in the numerical results can be explained by the differences in the change of labor employment. Finally, elasticity associated with wage curve is the key factor determining the change in labor employment. The sensitivity analysis suggests that the simulation results under the scenario of wage curve are similar to those under the scenario of real wage rigidity (full employment) if a sufficiently small (large) elasticity is specified. In summary, labor market specification significantly influences the impact assessment associated with free trade agreements. Future researches should adopt appropriate specifications and scenarios for a better prediction of the economic impacts of the trade liberalization.

並列關鍵字

wage rigidity ； CGE ； RCEP ； wage curve

參考文獻

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