政治矛盾感與選民投票行為關聯之研究－ 以2010年高雄市長選舉為例

Study on Political Ambivalence and Voting Behavior － Case of Kaohsiung City Mayoral Election in 2010

郭政豪(Cheng Hao Kuo)

指導教授 ： 劉嘉薇

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/公共行政暨政策學系/碩士(2013年)

摘要

在政治活動與選舉過程中，潛在不確定性的選舉因素影響選民投票支持的對象，然選民在不同候選人或政黨情感評價上的政治矛盾感更牽動選民的投票行為。過去研究鮮少研究選民對於政治標的物（政黨、候選人或議題）之矛盾態度與正負面情感交織的心理狀態；此外，隨著媒體的發達、資訊的自由流通以及個人內心複雜的情感與思維，個人對於外在世界人事物的評價可能好壞參半，進而產生政治矛盾感。因此本文嘗試從政治矛盾感出發。
2010年高雄市長選舉，楊秋興憑藉過去高雄縣長任內卓越的施政成績以及高人氣，執意選擇離開民進黨自行參選，而楊秋興的脫黨參選亦確實促使選民在不同候選人或政黨情感評價上產生政治矛盾感。然而楊秋興在耕耘多年的高雄縣內未獲得理想的選民支持度，且高雄縣選民對於陳菊與楊秋興的高政治矛盾感並未影響選民的投票行為。相對的，黃昭順與楊秋興的選情受到選民矛盾態度的左右，且黃昭順受到選民矛盾態度的影響更勝於楊秋興，使得黃昭順的選情無形之中受到楊秋興參選的影響與擠壓。而在選舉結果只會有一位候選人勝出的情況下，當選民對黃昭順與楊秋興的政治矛盾感越高，則選民越會採取策略性投票，以避免最不喜歡的候選人當選。由此可見，政治矛盾感不論反映在選民的投票抉擇或是策略性投票行為上，皆造成選民投票抉擇的不堅定性或是選擇策略性投票的結果。因此，政治矛盾感實為未來解釋選民投票行為的新角度與選擇，亦為不可不察的現象。

關鍵字

政治矛盾感 ； 情感溫度計 ； 個人背景 ； 投票抉擇 ； 策略性投票

並列摘要

In political activities and election process, the potential of uncertainty election factors influence political objects that voters would support. However, the voters’political ambivalence in emotional evaluation toward differnet candidates or political parties will even affect vote choice. There were few study explore the voters' ambivalence or positive and negative intertwined emotions of psychological status to the political subject（political parties, candidates or issues). However, with the development of media, flow of information, and personal complex emotions and ideas, people may mix complicated evaluation to the affair and generate ambivalence. Therefore, this paper attempts to start off the variable of political ambivalence.
In 2010 Kaohsiung City mayoral election, Chiu-hsing Yang depended on his ruling achivements and high popularity in the past term of Kaohsiung County Magistrate. He insisted to leave the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and participate in Kaohsiung City mayoral election by himself. And Chiu-hsing Yang really made voters generate political ambivalence in emotional evaluation toward differnet candidates or political parties. However, Chiu-hsing Yang didn't obtain desirable support from Kaohsiung County that he managed many years. Besides, Kaohsiung County voters’high political ambivalence toward Chu Chen and Chiu-hsing Yang didn't influence voters’voting choice. On the contrast, voters’political ambivalence toward Zhao Shun Huang and Chiu-hsing Yang that did affect the circumstance of both ; what is more, the circumstance of Zhao Shun Huang get much worse than Chiu-hsing Yang’s. However, Chiu-hsing Yang participated in Kaohsiung city mayoral election that made Zhao Shun Huang edged out in this election. Under the circumstances of election result, there will be only one candidate prevail against other candidates. The voters have more political ambivalence between Chiu-hsing Yang and Zhao Shun Huang, they would do more strategy voting to avoid the candidate winning election that they dislike . Whether political ambivalence is reflected on the voting choice or strategic voting, it results in the consequence of unsteady voting choice and strategic voting. Therefore, political ambivalence is the brand-new direction to discuss voting behavior, and this phenomenon is also worthy of being studied.

並列關鍵字

Political Ambivalence ； Feeling Thermometer ； Personal Background ； Voting Behavior ； Strategic Voting

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