服務業部門規模與所得不均關係之跨國數據驗證

The Cross-Country Evidence of the Relationship between the Size of Service Sector and Income Inequality

羅際威(CHI-WEI LO)

指導教授 ： 王宜甲

國立臺北大學/社會科學學院/經濟學系/碩士(2016年)

摘要

顧志耐曲線預測所得不均程度會隨著國民所得成長至某一高峰後開始下降，但在二十一世紀的現在，不論是高所得國家或中低所得國家的所得不均程度仍持續上升，甚至有學者認為在未來世界趨勢中，各國所得不均程度可能會達到前所未有的高峰。

本文觀察到，許多國家的服務業產出佔該國國內生產毛額的比重，也如同所得不均程度一樣在20世紀末、21世紀初時持續擴大，因此本篇論文採用17個國家，自1982年至2012年之每五年平均值，共六個時間點的吉尼係數、人均實質GDP及服務業產出佔總GDP比例之追蹤資料，以探討服務業的擴張與所得不均程度上升的關聯。

由於吉尼係數與人均實質GDP、吉尼係數與服務業產出佔總GDP比例分別可能會有內生性問題，因此本文以一國人均資本存量、勞動總工時及服務業雇用人數佔總雇用人數比例作為兩階段最小平方法的工具變數。最後的分析結果顯示，本文傾向支持顧志耐曲線的存在，而吉尼係數與服務業擴張有顯著正相關，因此本文認為二十世紀末至二十一世紀初所得不均程度持續上升之原因在於服務業的擴張，使得顧志耐曲線持續上移，讓此一曲線的下降階段無法呈現於跨國的實證結果。

關鍵字

經濟成長 ； 所得不均 ； 工具變數 ； 服務業產出

並列摘要

Simon Kuznets predicted that income inequality will decline after a country reaches a threshold level of per-capita income, but this prediction fails to be true in the 21st century.

We observe that the production share of service sector in many countries became higher and higher at the end of the 20th century and the begining of the 21stcentury, which is similar to the trend of income inequality, so this paper uses a 17-country panel data that includes Gini coefficient, real GDP per capita and the production share of service sector from 1982 to 2012, to test whether there is a significant correlation between inequality and the expansion of service sector.

Because Gini coefficient and real GDP per capita and Gini coefficient and the production of service sector in total GDP might have endogeneity problem, we use capital stock per capita, total working hours in a country and total employment levels in a country’s service sector as the instrumental variables in the two-stage least square regressions. The result supports the existence of Kuznets curve only when the share of service sector remains constant. With the expansion of the service sector, Kuznets curve will be shifting upwards, which may fail to support Kuznets’ prediction.

並列關鍵字

Economic growth ； Income inequality ； Instrumental variable ； Production share of income inequality

參考文獻

Bhandari, Rabindra; Mukti Upadhyay and Gyan Pradhan. 2010. "Another Empirical Look at the Kuznets Curve." International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research (IJESAR), 3(2), 7-19.

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