影響台灣民間消費支出相關因素之研究

The Research of Affected and Related Factors on private consumption in Taiwan

徐儷云(Li -Yun Hsu)

指導教授 ： 林烱垚 ； 林泉源

國立臺北大學/商學院/國際財務金融碩士在職專班/碩士(2011年)

摘要

台灣2009年民間消費占GDP約60.8%，過去十年來，民間消費占GDP比率皆約有50~60%，消費的增長對於經濟增長的貢獻率最大，成為拉動內需及促進經濟發展的動力，本研究所探討民間消費支出與實質所得、實質利率與加權股價指數四項因素之關係。研究樣本期間為2000年第一季至2009年第四季之資料，共計40筆樣本資料。本研究得到下述研究結論：
1.台灣地區之消費支出顯著地受股價、所得與利率之影響。
2.探討所得、股價與利率對消費的因果關係影響：
(1)民間消費對實質所得大於加權股價指數與實質利率的因果關係。
(2)實質所得對實質利率有單向因果關係。
(3)實質利率則對於民間消費、實質所得與加權股價指數則無任何因果關係。
(4)可藉由加權股價指數觀察對民間消費和實質所得之變化。
3.將消費支出細分為12項，實質所得如何影響消費支出。
(1)被分類為奢侈財的有：家具設備家務維護、醫療保健、通訊和休閒與文化，共四項消費支出。
(2)被分類為必需品的有：食品及非酒精飲料、住宅水電瓦斯燃料、交通、娛樂消遣教育和餐廳及旅館，共5項消費支出。

關鍵字

民間消費,消費支出

並列摘要

In 2009, the private consumption is about 60.8% in Taiwan's GDP ratio. Over the past decade, the private consumption is about 50 ~ 60% in Taiwan’s-GDP ratio. The greatest contribution to economic growth is increasing in consumption. It also becomes an upward driving force for economic development and domestic demand. This Research discussed the relationship between the four factors, private consumption expenditure, real income, real interest rates and the weighted stock price index. There are a total of 40 sample data, including from the data of the first quarter in 2000 to the fourth quarter in 2009. Conclusions of this study are the following:
1. The Consumption expenditure in Taiwan significantly affected by stock prices, income and interest rate.
2. Discussed the relationship between income, stock price and interest rate effects on consumption of causality, as follows:
(1) The effect from private consumption to real income is more than the weighted to stock price index and the real interest rate.
(2) There is a one-way causal relationship between real income to real interest rates.
(3) There is no any causal relationship between real interest rate to private consumption, real income and the weighted stock price index.
(4) It can be observed through the change of the weighted stock price index to private consumption and real income.
3. How real income can affect consumer spending, and separated the Consumption expenditure into 12 items.
(1) To classify as a luxury of wealth: household furniture and equipment maintenance, health care, communications and leisure and culture.
(2) To classify as necessities: food and non-alcoholic beverages, fuel residential utilities, transportation, education, entertainment and restaurants and hotels.

並列關鍵字

private consumption, consumption expenditure

參考文獻

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