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  • 學位論文

建商土地開發及房屋銷售時機選擇分析

Timing Selection of Land Development and Pre-sale Housing

指導教授 : 彭建文
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摘要


建商在不動產整體開發流程中共面臨購地、開發及銷售等三個時機選擇,相較於以往文獻多探討成屋銷售下的土地開發時機選擇,預售制度除為我國特有銷售模式外,亦使建商握有房屋銷售時機的選擇權利。但因銷售與土地開發時機選擇所面臨決策環境不同,如買方選擇權介入及價格決策可回復性皆與土地開發決策有所差異,故其決策應有不同考量。有鑑於至今尚無研究針對時機選擇行為影響因素做實證探討,本研究即以土地開發及房屋銷售時機選擇為標的,並比較兩者結果以分析其決策差異。 因區位因素異質性考量,本研究以國立台北大學特定區內土地標售及建案資料作為對象,並以多元迴歸及次序迴歸模型予以探討。實證結果顯示時機選擇行為明顯受到市場環境影響,預期景氣上揚促使建商提前開發及銷售時機,市場不確定性增加則使建商延後開發時機。土地未來收益預期提高雖使建商延後開發,卻使建商提前銷售時機,此部分應與預售制度之價格調整機制有所關連。土地取得成本多寡雖對時機選擇行為無顯著影響,但此部分可留待更多實證資料後再重新予以驗證。買方決策加入則對建商提前銷售行為形成違約風險,促使建商延後銷售時機以避免違約風險上升,此為買方選擇權介入所生影響。 此外,本研究以行為財務觀點為基礎,加計決策者特性予以探討時機選擇行為,結果顯示具有分散風險習性的機構型建商較為傾向提前開發及銷售,部分具有銷售時機慣性的建商其區內建案銷售時機則有相同慣性存在,可知部分建商應有慣性思維現象。對於上述結果,建議後續研究可以行為財務觀點對非效率性市場內的建商決策行為提出更多討論,或以實質選擇權模型分析決策風險及決策可回復性所生影響。

並列摘要


In Taiwan, a housing pre-sale system is the primary model for home sales. It allows builders to choose the timing of their sales. However, the selection of home sales and land development timing occur in a difficult environment. Buyers’ behavior is different from that of land developers; therefore, their decision making has different considerations. For this study, we analyze and discuss this field because research has on the different factors involved in the selection of timing has been scant. Considering the heterogeneity of regional factors, we chose the land auction and housing sales data of the National Taipei University special district for our study. We used multiple regression and order regression models to discuss our research. The empirical results show that attitudes toward timing are significantly influenced by market conditions. Expected building booms encourage developers to advance their development and sales timing. Market fluctuations push builders to delay the timing of their development. However, expectations of higher earnings persuade builders to push forward the timing of their sales but delay development. It is possible that this phenomenon is connected with risk reduction measures. Land acquisition costs have no significant effect on timing selection; however, this should be examined further. Purchasing behavior produces a default risk in advance sales for builders, prompting them to delay the timing of their sales to reduce their risk. We added decision-making factors in our model to explore their decision behavior regarding timing selection. Results show that a construction group which uses many different company titles is more inclined to advance the development and sales timing. Builders who had inertial thinking before maintain their decision-making behavior toward timing selection. This phenomenon shows that some builders have an inertia mentality toward timing selection. We suggest that follow-up studies use the behavioral financial perspective on builders’ behavior in a non-efficient market, or discuss the effect of default risk and reversibility using the model of real option.

參考文獻


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被引用紀錄


林明忠(2014)。都會區土地開發適宜性因子之探討〔碩士論文,國立臺北科技大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0006-2807201417122200

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