累積性社會經濟脆弱度評估-以淡水河流域為例

Cumulative Socioeconomic Vulnerability Assessment :the case of Tamsui river basin

吳俊昱(Jun-Yu Wu)

指導教授 ： 洪鴻智

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/不動產與城鄉環境學系/碩士(2014年)

摘要

淡水河流域近年來因社會經濟的發展與都市的擴張，河川之上、中、下游的土地開發與公共建設日益增加，影響了整個生態環境、建成環境，甚至是整個都市、郊區與鄉村。以往運作的模式與環境系統也隨著日積月累的開發建設產生變化，然而這些變化的累積，也慢慢的使這些地區遭受之災害程度、暴露在災害下之敏感度與調適能力受到了影響，也就是說環境的社會經濟脆弱度經過時間的推移慢慢開始產生了時間與空間的改變，因此本文將利用流域尺度與時間尺度進行淡水河流域村里層級颱洪災害社會經濟脆弱度因素的探討與分析，並利用85年與95年為研究時間年。
結果顯示，高脆弱度地區主要集中在於台北縣與台北市靠近淡水河流域支流地區，屬於下游地帶，而中游的桃園地區次之，最低脆弱的地區則是新竹關西鎮與尖石鄉和台北縣的坪林鄉，十年間脆弱度較高的地區上游增加的數量較多，且越來越脆弱，下游地區脆弱度則呈現降低之狀況。背後的脆弱度驅動因素結果顯示85年經濟發展為關鍵因子，95年則是經濟發展與公共設施。

關鍵字

社會經濟脆弱度 ； 颱洪災害 ； 地理資訊系統 ； 累積性

並列摘要

Due to the recent developments of economic and expansion of cities, the lands were developed and the public facilities were built among upstream, midstream and downstream of the basin of Tamsui that influenced all the ecological environment, built-up area even the whole city, suburban and rural area. The former modes of operating and ecological systems also have been changed on account of the cumulate developments and constructions ,however, the cumulate changes also influenced the sensitivity of exposing to the calamity and the ability of regulating in these areas , that is to say the economic vulnerability of environment has been changed over time that gradually caused the spatiotemporal changes. Consequently, this paper will utilize the basin scale and time scale to prove and analyze the factor in economic vulnerability of environment about typhoon and flood of the town-ship level in the basin of Tamsui. Taking the period 1996-2006 as study time.

The results showed that a high degree of vulnerability of the region was mainly concentrated in New Taipei City and Taipei city near the Tamsui River tributaries.
New Taipei City and Taipei city belonged to the downstream area, while the middle of the Taoyuan River basin took the second place. The lowest of vulnerability region were Qionglin Township, Jianshi Township of Hsinchu County and Pinglin Dist of New Taipei City. The cumulative circumstances did not change significantly in this decade. The results of the factors of vulnerability showed that the key factor of 1996 was economic development, while the 2006 was the economic development and public facilities.

並列關鍵字

Socioeconomic Vulnerability ； Typhoon Disaster ； GIS ； Cumulative

參考文獻

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