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  • 學位論文

台灣家戶消費對自然資源折耗之衝擊--混合投入產出模型/線性規劃之應用

The Impacts Of Household Consumption On Nature Resource Depletion In Taiwan— Mixed Input-Output And Liner Programming Approach

指導教授 : 楊重信
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摘要


本研究運用產值混合表的概念,利用了國內的產業關聯表配合自然資源實物投入量,建構出台灣地區的90年經濟─生態模型來了解國內的產業部門對於自然資源的投入係數,進而分析出國內哪些產業對於自然資源的使用型態是朝向永續,哪些產業的資源使用型態又是背離永續。再者,由於自然資的使用總量是受到限制的,本研究為了解決總量管制的問題,於是又配合線性規劃(Liner Programming)的模型建構,藉由控制了自然資源使用量的限制性型態,進行多類型的情境模擬,來探討自然資源的總量受限下,資源的使用會形成何種的最適配置,也就是為哪些產業的最終消費會優先被滿足,而哪些產業則是無法滿足及其缺量為何?以用來了解如要配合資源總量,產業型態該如何調整。在本研究中,主要的模擬情境有下列兩種:一、控制單一自然資源的總量遞減情境,從減少10%一直到減少60%,其餘三種自然資源總量不變;二、分別對於四種自然資源進行資源減少10%總量的情境模擬。而本研究之主要發現包括: (一)經濟─生態模型部分: (1)推估出台灣地區民國90年的自然資源投入係數,而在自然資源方面包括了水資源、土地資源、森林資源及土石礦產資源。 (2)得知這四種自然資源投入係數最高的產業部門,分別為電力部門(水資源)、林業部門(土地資源)、木材及其製品部門(森林資源)及公共工程部門(土石及礦產資源)。 (二)線性規劃部分 (1)情境一中透過單一資源(水資源)允許使用總量的逐漸調整(調降10%~60%),得知水資源的影子價格從9.4元/度變動到25.5元/度,比現有的水費價格7.5元/度高出許多,由此可知,水資源的收費價格須進行政策性的調整。 (2)情境二中分別對於四項自然資源的高消費產業進行結構調整,可以得知變動土地資源的消費結構時,目標函數(附加價值)為12兆4千億,國內總產出為22兆6千億為最高;此時自然資源影子價格皆高於市場價格,因此建議政府應該進行價格調整。

並列摘要


This research usage production value mix the concept of form, made use of domestic industry connection form to match with natural resource real object devotion quantity, construct economic -ecosystem model for 90 years of Taiwan , to understand domestic coefficient of the industry section's devotion toward natural resource, then analytical go abroad inside which industries for the use pattern of natural resource is toward sustainable, which industries of resource use pattern again is deviate from a sustainable. Furthermore, in order to supporting naturally of use a total amount is be subjected to the limiting, this research for working out the problem of total amount control, hence match with the model construction of line programming(Liner Programming), by control the type of the restriction of natural resource dosage, carry on the scenario emulation of many types, inquire into that the total amount of natural resource is descended by limit, the usage of resource will become what of the most suitable allocation, also is which industries of the final consumption will have the initiative satisfy, and which industries is can't satisfy and lacks quantity ? In order to be used for understanding that if will cooperate with the total amount of resource, how should the industry type attitude adjusted. In this research, there are the following two kinds of main simulation situation: One, control single total amount of natural resource to gradually decrease scenario, from reduce 10% until reduce 60%, rest three kinds of natural resource total amounts are constantly; Two, the difference carries on the scenario emulation that the resource reduces 10% total amounts to four kinds of natural resources. And this research of mainly find to include: (A)The part of Economy-Ecosystem model: (1)Estimate natural coefficient of the resource devotion of Taiwan Year 90 of the Republic of China, and included water resource, land resource, forest resource and the resource of the ground mineral in the natural resource. (2)Know these four kinds of natural resource devotion the highest industry section of coefficient, distinguish for electric power section(water resource), forestry section(land resource), timber and its product section(forest resource) and the public works section(ground and mineral resource). (B)The part of line programming: (1)Scenario a medium allow the gradual adjustment(lower 10%~60%) of the usage total amount through single resource(water resource), know the shadow price of water resource to change to 25.5 dollars/degree from 9.4 dollars/degree, is higher than existing water rate price 7.5 dollars/degree, the charge price of water resource must carry on policy adjustment. (2)Scenario two win to carry on structure adjustment to the high consumption industry of four natural resources respectively, while canning know the consumption structure of resource in the fluctuation land target function(additional value) is 12 trillion 400 billion, the total output is 22 trillion 600 billion is the highest; The natural resource shadow price all is higher than market price at this time, therefore the suggestion government should carry on price adjustment.

參考文獻


蔡立人,「以投入產出分析法研究中國能源需求」,國立中山大學大陸研究所碩士
許哲強,1994,「結構變動對台灣能源密集度、能源消費與二氧化碳排放之影
鄭遠,2002,「地表水與地下水灌區水資源聯合運用之研究--以屏東隘寮圳灌區
Huang, G. H., Anderson, W. P. and Baetz, B.W.(1994). Environmental input-output analysis and its application to regional solid-waste management planning, Journal
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被引用紀錄


陳文賓(2011)。以系統動態學為基之澎湖低碳島綠色運輸政策規劃效益評估研究〔碩士論文,國立臺北科技大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6841%2fNTUT.2011.00683

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