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  • 學位論文

土地增值稅制改變之經濟效益統計分析

The Economic Effect of Land Value Increment Tax System Change in Taiwan

指導教授 : 吳祥華 李孟峰
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摘要


土地增值稅稅率一直以來被認為過高,長期偏高的稅率將造成土地資源的閉鎖效應。民國91年土地增值稅減半徵收兩年與民國95年土地增值稅永久調降稅率之減稅政策的目的,是希望透過降低土地增值稅稅率,提振房地產景氣,促進經濟成長。然而,土地增值稅減徵真能帶動經濟嗎?本研究借用Barro(1990)所設定的生產函數精神,並擴充將土地增值稅稅收與其他稅收兩變數納入,作為分析模型架構。 為考量稅制改變可能造成經濟體結構轉變的情形發生,故在單根檢定時特別採用Perron(1989)考量變數結構轉變之單根檢定。本文以Engle and Granger (1987)兩階段共整合方法及誤差修正模型分析各經濟變數的長、短期關係,並在模型中加入税制改變的虛擬變數,分析稅制改變所引起的經濟效益。另外由於土增稅減半及永久調降稅率的税率相差不大且從土地增值稅收來看,兩稅制的增減幅度不大,故將這兩種稅制視同一種減稅政策,並加入共整合關係式與誤差修正模型中,分析減稅政策所引起的經濟效益。 首先以單根檢定法來檢定各項變數是否為定態,結果顯示變數皆為I(1)序列,接著以Perron(1989)結構轉變的單根檢定,檢測各變數的平穩性,檢定結果與不考慮結構轉變的ADF檢定結果相同。再以共整合檢定變數間的長期均衡關係,然後進行誤差修正模型,分析短期動態關係。本研究所設定兩種共整合與誤差修正模型之實證分析結果,無論從長期還是短期來看,土地增值稅的減稅政策,刺激經濟成長效果不大,反而不利於國內生產毛額。若以第一種共整合與誤差修模型之實證分析,長期而言,實施永久調降土增稅率之稅制對國內生產毛額有顯著負面影響;短期而言,土地增值稅減半徵收政策對國內生產毛額亦有不利的影響。

並列摘要


The Land Value Increment Tax rate has been considered too high for a long time, yet the high rate may result in the Lock-in Effect in the land resources. The purpose of tax reduction policies, including the halves of levying Land Value Increment Tax for another extensive year in 2002 and permanent Land Value Increment Tax rate reduction in 2006, is to promote the real estate market and boost the economic growth. However, Can the Land Value Increment Tax cut policy really boost the economy? The research utilizes the Barro (1990) production function as the analytical model structure and extensively incorporates the Land Value Increment Tax income and other tax income as variables. In order to concern the tax system change resulting in economic structure transformation, the Unit Root Test adopts in the research is the Perron (1989) Unit Root test which considers the variable structure transformation. The text analyzes the long-term/short-term relationship of a range of economic variables by taking Engle and Granger(1897) two-phase Co-integration methodology and Error Correction Model and by adding the tax system change dummy variables into the Model to analyze the economic benefits. Besides, due to the subtle difference in above-mentioned two tax-cut polices and the little latitude in the Land Value Increment Tax Income, the research regards the two polices as one tax-cut policy and adds to the Co-integration Formula and Error Correction Model to analyze the economic benefits. Firstly, the research tests the stationary of each variable by adopting the Unit Root Test and all variables shows I(1) sequence. Secondly, it tests the stability of each variable by adopting Perron (1989) structure transformation Unit Root Test. The test result is same as the ADF test, which does not consider the structure transformation. Thirdly, it analyzes the short-term dynamic relationship by taking the long-term equilibrium relationship of Co-integration Test variables to the Error Correction Model. The empirical test result of the two co-integration and Error Correction Models show the economic benefits from the Land Value Increment Tax cut policies neither long-term nor short-term are invisible but harmful to the Gross Domestic Product. In the long run, under the first Co-integration and Error Correction Model empirical test result, imposing the permanent Land Value Increment Tax rate cut has significant negative impact on Gross Domestic Product, as well as the halves of levying Land Value Increment Tax policy in the short run.

參考文獻


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1.Barro, R. J. (1990), “Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 98, 103-125.

被引用紀錄


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謝嘉玲(2014)。土地增值稅、房地產價格及經濟成長關聯性研究〔碩士論文,國立臺中科技大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6826%2fNUTC.2014.00082
周美連(2013)。臺北市財政收支規模與結構之研究:民國60年度至100年度〔碩士論文,國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342%2fNTU.2013.02190
詹莉荺(2011)。土地增值稅調降政策對地方財政之中期影響─兼論我國中央與地方之財政關係〔碩士論文,國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342%2fNTU.2011.02391
林麗香(2011)。土地增值稅對地方經濟成長之影響〔碩士論文,國立臺中科技大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0061-0807201109375700

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