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  • 學位論文

應用巨災模型於洪災風險分析之研究:以曾文溪流域為例

The Application of Catastrophe Model to Flood Risk Analysis:The Case of Tseng-Wen River Basin

指導教授 : 洪鴻智
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摘要


巨災指的是自然現象所造成的災害結果,例如臺灣常見的自然災害為颱風、地震、洪災與土石流等所造成人們之損害,包含經濟與社會的損害。其中,颱風與洪災之發生,是因臺灣地處副熱帶季風區,每年都會有颱風之侵襲,又因臺灣地勢陡峻、河床的比降極大,導致每逢雨季來臨,溪流容易暴漲,引致洪災的發生。自然災害的產生,容易產生危害與財產之損失,巨災模型即是為瞭解巨災風險,並有效作為管理風險之依據的一種方式。因此,如何透過巨災模型對自然災害的分析是一重要研究課題。   巨災模型主要在分析天然巨災所產生的災害預期脆弱程度,透過此方式瞭解一個地區洪災的風險值,作為防減災應變措施之參考依據。本研究運用巨災模型方式,建構洪災風險分析模型,並選定曾文溪流域作為案例研究,依序進行危害度分析、脆弱度分析後,並藉由蒙地卡羅模擬法產生脆弱度超越機率曲線,瞭解曾文溪流域於不同雨量規模所產生的洪災風險值。   研究結果發現,第一,地勢高低影響降雨頻率,地勢愈高降雨頻率愈高。第二,淹水深度受降雨量之影響,降雨量愈高淹水深度愈深,但地勢較高之地區除外。第三,降雨量愈高,地區之受災風險愈高,尤以下游與近下游地區變化程度愈明顯;而上游與近上游地區則受到原始脆弱條件之影響,降雨量變化差異對風險高低影響不大。第四,總脆弱度曲線分析方式,相較於最大脆弱度分析而言,更適合作為風險決策之評斷依據。第五,氣候變遷影響地區之脆弱程度,溫度上升愈高,則強降雨機率增加愈多,造成地區脆弱度提升。

並列摘要


Catastrophe refers to the disasters caused by natural phenomena results, such as typhoons, earthquakes, floods and debris flows the common natural disasters in Taiwan made demage to people, including economic and social damage. Owing to the geographic location of Taiwan is on subtropical monsoon zone, so typhoons occur frequently every year. Also because of steep terrain and stream gradient in Taiwan, it will make swollen streams and leads to floods during the rainy season. Those natural disasters are prone to damage and loss property. Catastrophe model is to understand the catastrophic risk, and effectively managing risk as a basis for a way.Therefore, how to through the catastrophe model to analysis natural disasters is an important research topic.     Catastrophe models are mainly in the analysis of disasters to expect vulnerability arising from natural disasters, through this approach to realize a region may face the risk, and as the reference for contingency measures of catastrophe. Catastrophe model is used to establish floods (including the typhoon caused and simple floods) risk analysis model, and selected Tseng-Wen River Basin as a case study. Firstly, it is used to do hazard analysis, and then do vulnerability analysis. Finally, we used Monte Carlo Simulation to establish vulnerability exceedance probability curve, in order to assess the different simulation of flood risk of Tseng-Wen River Basin caused by rain.     The results showed that, first, the terrain affect the level of rainfall frequency, the higher terrain lead to the higher rainfall frequency. Second, the depth affect by the rainfall, the higher rainfall lead to the higher depth, except to the areas which are steep topography. Third, the higher rainfall, the higher the risk of disaster region, especially in and near the lower region which changes are more obvious, and the upstream and near the upstream region were affected by the conditions of the original vulnerability, so there are no difference to the risk between high rainfall and low rainfall. Fourth, the aggregate vulnerability exceedance probability curve method, compared to occurrence vulnerability exceedance probability curve, is more suitable as basis for decision-making of the judge. Fifth, climate change will affect the vulnerability, the higher temperature rises, the increased of more heavy rainfall, resulting in regional vulnerability to upgrade.

參考文獻


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被引用紀錄


林筱翊(2017)。應用空間迴歸分析方法於都市洪汎風險評估與防災決策分析-以台北市為例〔碩士論文,中原大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6840%2fcycu201700335
顧雲(2013)。河川堤岸風險評估分析-以高屏溪為例〔碩士論文,國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342%2fNTU.2013.02754
蔡惠雯(2017)。降雨誘發崩塌潛勢區脆弱度評估模式之建置〔碩士論文,長榮大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=U0015-2208201722100400

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