結合多目標規劃與系統動態方法評估我國電力部門追求國家3E目標發展之影響研究

Combined MODM and System Dynamics for the Evaluation of Electricity Sector Pursuing National 3E Targets

黃軒亮(Hsuan-Liang Huang)

指導教授 ： 張四立

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/自然資源與環境管理研究所/碩士(2009年)

摘要

隨著經濟發展、石油危機與氣候變遷等議題的討論，顯示能源在各議題間扮演重要的角色，因此如何在發展經濟活動之虞，兼顧能源消費與環境保護，達到能源、經濟與環境三者均衡發展，已成為各國政府施政的重要方針之ㄧ。我國「永續能源政策綱領」與「98年全國能源會議」相關引言皆揭示我國能源發展之目標應兼顧能源安全、經濟發展與環境保護，進而提升資源使用的效率，開發對環境友善的潔淨能源，以及確保穩定的能源供給，創造跨世代能源、環保與經濟三贏的願景，故3E議題之影響評估為我國相關發展政策與電源開發所需衡量之準則。鑒於電力事業之投資與決策具資本密集、技術密集及前置作業期長等特性，故電源結構之調整並非一蹴可及，必須酌以前瞻性之判斷，進行漸進式之檢討、規劃與調整。故本研究藉由相關議題之討論，評估未來電力部門面臨之3E壓力與挑戰，並建構決策分析模型，配合資料庫的建立與軟體操作，以期建立決策支援系統應用於未來長期電源規劃上。
本研究考量研究方法之特性，嘗試以產業關聯分析結合多目標規劃法建構MultEEE模型，進行單年度間3E多目標發展下之電力供給規劃。此外利用上述模型之結果結合系統動態方法，並使之涵蓋其他外生變數以模擬長期趨勢變化，以明確顯現我國電力部門在面對各議題之變化下對國家3E目標之影響。本研究利用MultEEE模型進行決策規劃，並透過3E系統動態模型模擬歷年發展路徑，其相關議題之結論如以下四點：
(1)燃料價格議題：本研究利用MultEEE模型模擬燃料價格情境，其中不論是2015年或是2025年其燃料價格變動之影響都僅限於發電成本之漲跌，而其他經濟、能源及環境等目標與發電量、發電結構皆影響不大。係因本研究之模型並未建構發電成本與電價之關係式，以及電價與電力需求量的交互作用影響，因此各目標函數中，僅發電成本有明顯之反應與影響。而利用3E系統動態模型模擬，並增加考量電價彈性之效果，其結果顯示，電價彈性0.3~0.4設定下，其對於目標函數之影響效果不明顯，但仍有些微變化。
(2)發電技術議題：本研究模擬之結果顯示，先進發電技術與加裝CCS情境下，2025年之二氧化碳排放量皆較基準情境低，而發電成本則為增加。其中未來新增裝置容量改採先進發電技術，相較於基準情境每度電則增加0.02元之成本，約可減少29公克二氧化碳排放，而採用CCS設備，則每度發電成本需增加高達0.60元，但可減量約380公克。由此效益看來，未來相關電力部門應以更新機組提高發電效率為優先，待未來CCS發展技術純熟與成本可行後，再一起並行，以達溫室氣體減量之成效。
(3)政府政策議題：根據政府低碳經濟與CO2減量目標之規劃，考量核能為過渡選項之情況下，本研究模擬結果顯示，新增核能情境(14,594MW)，可降低總發電成本約67,657百萬元，單位發電成本由2.85降為2.68元，單位發電CO2排放由0.668公斤變為0.525公斤，使國家CO2排放減少57百萬公噸。而配合政府減量目標，2025年回歸2000年之214百萬公噸，其中僅以擴增核能機組因應減量目標情況下，將對經濟面向造成衝擊，降幅達30.06%(2025)；但如除擴大核能新增機組外，亦提高每年能源效率2%以因應減量，其經濟目標則僅較基準情境下降4.27%，因此考量減量目標之虞，須提升各部門能源效率因應，減緩衝擊。
(4)模型分析比較：3E系統動態模型除可求得歷年度連續性資料外，亦有利於增加相關變數進行對3E系統與電力系統影響之評估。此外，透過電腦介面與軟體操作，3E系統動態模型可用來建置決策支援系統以支援決策者利用資料與模式解決相關問題。然而，現行模型之建構由於未具備MultEEE模型決策規劃之能力，因此僅能模擬相關趨勢發展，未來嘗試將兩模型之功能加以結合，以作為探討電力部門之分析工具。

關鍵字

電力部門 ； 3E目標 ； 產業關聯分析 ； 多目標規劃 ； 多目標決策模型 ； 系統動態

並列摘要

Referring to various discussions on economic development, oil crisis and climate change, the study know that energy play an important role in these issues. Therefore it posed a passing need for the government in formulating national plan to balance the 3E targets. The Guidelines for Sustainable Energy Policy and the conclusion of 2009 Energy Meeting indicate that the objectives for our energy development should take into account energy security, economic growth and environmental protection to promote the efficient use of resources, development of clean energy, as well as the stable energy supply, so that a vision with cross generation targets could be achieved. The study concluded that 3E’s are the main principle for the energy policy and power development.
Electricity sector, features the characteristics of capital intensive, technology intensive and long lead time, so we must have foresight and self-criticism when plan long planning period of power generation. In this research, a policy decision model, with comprehensive data base and software were developed and applied to assess the effect of some issues on 3E targets of the electricity sector in the future.
A combined method of Inter-Industry Analysis and Multiple Objective Programming to build MultEEE model and then carried out electricity supply under 3E targets for some year. The result were obtained was then used as input to System Dynamics model to simulate the long-term trend of 3E targets. The major findings can be summered as:
(1)The fuel price: Regarding the outcome of MultEEE model, neither in 2015 nor in 2025, the fuel price would influence the generation only cost. Other elements, such like economic-environment-energy targets and generation mix would not be affected. Because the interaction between power price and the electricity demand were not be incorporated into the model. However using the 3E-SD model to analyze the elasticity of power price, the study found that when the elasticity of power price set at 0.3~0.4, the affect of price change was not very significant.
(2)The generation technology: the study shows that the scenarios of advanced technologies and CCS would reduce the CO2 emission and increase the cost of power generation. The scenario of new capacity with advanced technologies in the future increase 0.02 NT/kWh and reduce 29 g CO2 emission/kWh compared with BAU scenario. And the cost of CCS scenario was increase 0.6 NT/kWh and it reduced 380 g CO2/kWh than BAU. Comparing the benefit, the power sector should efficiency improvement as top priority.
(3)The government policy: Under the assumption of low-carbon economy, CO2 reduction objective, and nuclear energy option, the study showed that if nuclear capacity increased (14,594MW), it could reduce total cost of power generation by 676,570 million dollar, unit cost of power generation would drop from 2.85 to 2.65 dollar, and the CO2 emission of electricity sector would drop from 0.668 kg/kWh to 0.525 kg/kWh, so that the national CO2 emission would be reduced by 570 million tones. The official target is to reduce CO2 emission to the level of 2000 (2140 million tons). Among the scenarios, the one using nuclear capacity expansion is the only CO2 mitigation measure which appeared to reduce the impact on economy by 30.06% in 2025. While the expansion of nuclear energy also improve energy efficiency by 2% each year to meet the GHG reduction target, it conclusion that the government must upgrade the overall energy efficiency in response to the GHG mitigation and to reduce the impact on GDP.
(4)The study concludes that 3E system dynamic model can be used as decision support system, however, 3E-SD model does not have the function of capacity planning for the electricity sector, the future will attempt to model the function of the two model be combined.

並列關鍵字

electricity sector ； economic-energy-environment target ； inter-industry analysis ； multiple objective programming ； multiple objective decision method ； system dynamics

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