航運業納入歐盟排放交易體系對台灣經濟面影響之分析

Economy-Wide Analysis of Including Aviation into the European Emission Trading Scheme: A Case Study of Taiwan

陳奕緻(Yi-Chih Chen)

指導教授 ： 李叢禎

國立臺北大學/社會科學學院/經濟學系/碩士(2012年)

摘要

全球化促使國際航運業快速擴張與成長，航運業因此被視為溫室氣體排放的潛在威脅。有鑑於此，歐盟決定將航運業納入歐盟排放交易體系，所有起降於歐盟境內的各國班機均受此體制之規範。歐盟為台灣主要貿易對象，經由空運其主要貿易之商品為商旅服務、電子電機及機械設備等產品，故此一制度的實施勢必會透過國際貿易之管道，對台灣經濟體系造成影響。本文使用多地區、多部門之一般均衡模型，全球貿易分析(Global Trade Analysis Project, GTAP)模型進行情境模擬，探討歐盟將航運業納入排放交易體系後，對台灣的國內生產毛額、產業產值、台灣與歐盟間的貿易流量及福利之影響。一般均衡模型可提供事前(ex-ante)的模擬分析，它能有效捕捉經濟體系對政策變動的調適模式，同時針對貿易型態的改變作全面性之探討。本文設計航運業納入排放交易體系將帶來直接衝擊與間接衝擊，直接衝擊可視為台灣出口至歐盟的航運業服務被課徵進口關稅；而間接衝擊相當於台灣至歐盟的航運業運輸成本增加，進而導致航運業的技術衰退。本文結果顯示，航運業納入排放交易體系對台灣的國內生產毛額有微量的負向效果，即使在同時有直接與間接衝擊，碳價每噸80歐元的情境下，台灣的國內生產毛額變動幅度僅下降0.0097%，相當於38.195百萬美元之損失。產業之產出變動並不顯著，其中於同時包含直接與間接衝擊，碳價每噸80歐元情境下，台灣航運業的產出變動幅度最大，有0.826%的產出減少變動量，相當於52.1949百萬美元的損失。而台灣與歐盟的貿易流量則有小幅度變動。於六個與台灣貿易的歐盟國家之中，德國在同時有直接與間接衝擊，碳價每噸80歐元情境下，有最顯著的負向結果。台灣至德國的電子電機設備出口流量減少31.98百萬美元，而台灣至德國的航運業出口流量則減少14.38百萬美元。另一方面，台灣自德國的機械設備進口流量以及台灣自德國的其他製造業進口流量皆有0.79百萬美元的損失。至於福利變動部分，台灣的福利損失主要來自於稟賦效果及貿易條件效果。在同時包含直接與間接衝擊，碳價每噸80歐元情境下，稟賦效果有23.7373百萬美元的損失，而貿易條件效果則有26.0357百萬美元的損失。

關鍵字

航運業 ； 排放交易體系 ； 歐盟 ； 台灣 ； 全球貿易分析模型

並列摘要

International aviation has been recognized as a potential threat in CO2 emissions due to its rapid expansion as well as future growth caused by globalization. In view of this, the EU unilaterally decides to incorporate aviation sector in the EU-ETS. The EU is a major trading partner for Taiwan in terms of business, travel, electronic and machinery equipment. Therefore, the inclusion of aviation industry into the EU-ETS in 2012 will affect Taiwanese economy through the channel of international trade and the associated transport costs. Accordingly, this thesis applies an integrated multi-region, multi-sector CGE model, named Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), to estimate the impacts of including the aviation industry into the EU-ETS. We focus on the impacts on Taiwanese macro-economy, and analyze the changes in gross domestic product, industrial structure, trade flows between Taiwan and the EU, and welfare effects. The advantage of adopting the GTAP model is that it can provide ex-ante simulation analyses; and that it enables broad exploration of economy adaptation as well as trade patterns changes in respond to the policy reforms. In the thesis, the effects of including the aviation industry into the EU-ETS are divided into the direct and indirect shocks. The direct impact is equivalent to an increase in tax on Taiwan’s aviation service exporting to the EU. The indirect effect is the increase in freight costs of aviation industry from Taiwan to the EU, and the increased costs result in technological decline of Taiwanese aviation sector. Based on our simulation results, inclusion of aviation into the EU-ETS has negligible negative effects on Taiwan’s gross domestic product. Even under the scenario of shocking both the direct and indirect effects with the highest carbon price ?80/tCO2, the GDP merely decreases 0.0097% (US $38.195 millions) in Taiwan. The output changes of Taiwan’s industries are insignificant. The production of the air transport sector has the most significant decrease at the sub-scenario of shocking both the direct and indirect effects with carbon price ?80/tCO2. There is a 0.826% output reduction (US $52.1949 millions) in this scenario. Furthermore, the changes of trade flows between Taiwan and the EU are small. Among those EU countries trading with Taiwan, Germany has significant negative results in the changes of trade flows under the scenario of shocking both the direct and indirect effects with carbon price ?80/tCO2. The value of electronic equipment exports from Taiwan to Germany decreases $31.98 million USD, and the value of air transport exports from Taiwan to Germany decreases $14.38 million USD. On the other hand, the decrease in trade flows of machinery and equipment nec as well as other manufacture imports from Germany to Taiwan are US $0.79 millions. As for welfare decomposition, both the endowment effects and terms of trade effects dominate Taiwan’s welfare loss. In the scenario of shocking both the direct and indirect effects with carbon price ?80/tCO2, the endowment decreases US $23.7373 million and the terms of trade falls US $26.0357 million in Taiwan.

並列關鍵字

Aviation ； European Emission Trading Scheme ； EU-ETS ； EU ； Taiwan ； GTAP

參考文獻

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