台灣電力部門發展低碳能源與再生能源技術策略之經濟與環境效益評估

Low-Carbon and Renewable Energy Development Strategy in Electricity Sector － An 3E Model Approach

林志傳(Chih-Chuan Lin)

指導教授 ： 張四立

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/自然資源與環境管理研究所/碩士(2008年)

摘要

從1979年開始，全球氣候變遷議題使人類意識到環境問題並非單一問題，而是跨區域的全球性議題，也使得近年來IPCC國際專家組織、重要的國際高峰會議全都將焦點集中於此議題上。從人類文明發展過程中可以了解到，經濟、環境與能源三者之間存在緊密相連的關係，亦即為追求經濟發展而導致能源使用增加，進而使得環境受到嚴重的衝擊。近年來二氧化碳排放量逐漸升高，造成氣候變遷、全球暖化更加嚴重，京都機制的實施，使得各國對於能源的未來，期建構一個低碳經濟，為這波全球經濟社會轉型的新趨勢做了清楚地宣示。
綜觀我國各產業的二氧化碳排放量，電力部門為排放大戶，且在溫室氣體減量議題下，同時面臨非核家園、鼓勵再生能源、天然氣以及低碳技術的研發等能源政策方向，如何在經濟、環境、能源等目標中取得均衡點，實為重要之課題。故本研究透過產業關聯分析及電力供給多目標規劃模型，針對低碳能源與再生能源發展目標、能源效率提升目標、二氧化碳減量目標以及綜合發展目標等四大議題，共九項政策情境，對未來作情境模擬求解，並評估經濟、環境、能源三者兼顧下，對於GDP、CO2排放、能源需求、發電成本之間的影響為何。
研究結果發現：
（1）經濟目標：由於情境八針對CO2減量目標的設定，使得發電量受
到限制而影響到經濟發展，對整體GDP成長衝擊最大。
（2）環境目標：低碳能源與再生能源發展目標、能源效率提升目
標、二氧化碳減量目標都有助於二氧化碳排放減量，其中以提
升能源效率有最佳的減量效果存在。
（3）能源目標：能源效率提升與二氧化碳減量目標皆能降低能源需
求量，評估結果以提升能源使用效率最能降低能源需求量，因
而有最佳的績效存在。
（4）電力目標：再生能源發展可藉由政府補貼來吸收部份發電成
本，因而降低電力系統的負擔；能源效率提升會降低能源投入
係數，促使產業能源需求量減少而降低發電成本；二氧化碳減
量目標的設定會影響到生產總值，導致發電量的減少而降低發
電成本。然而，低碳能源(天然氣)、低碳技術發展目標則因為
天然氣價格較高、引進低碳技術的因素促使發電成本提高。

關鍵字

低碳能源 ； 再生能源 ； 碳捕捉與封存技術 ； 產業關聯分析 ； 電力供給多目標規劃模型 ； 溫室氣體減量

並列摘要

Ever since the 1979s, with climate changed all over the world, the issue of global warming was sensed by more and more people; this also made IPCC and G8 Summit focused on this issue. During the human civilized evolution, we could comprehend that there were close relations among economic, environment and energy. That is to say, people would like to achieve economic development, make the use of energy increasingly, but at the same time human cause damage to the environment. In recent years, carbon dioxide (CO2) emission has been rising little by little, which resulted in climate change, global warming and implementation of the Kyoto mechanisms. This also could be seen that all countries are with the new trend under the wave of transformation of economy society.
The electric sector is the largest CO2 emission source in all the industrial sectors in Taiwan. Under the issue of greenhouse gas reduction, the energy policy regarding non-nuclear homeland, the promotion of development of renewable energy, Liquefied natural gas and the development of low-carbon technology were the major issues for electricity sector. However, it is an essential and urgent topic to be balanced in terms of divergence goals of economic, environment and energy. So, my study applied input-output analysis and electricity planning model to estimate the impact on economy(T1)、environment(T2)、energy(T3) and electric(T4) in four topics, nine scenarios. Four topics are promotion of the development of low-carbon energy and renewable energy, promoting energy efficiency, CO¬2 reduction and integrate all goals.

The results show as followings:
1.T1: CO2 reduction goal will restrict generating capacity
and then has great impact on economic development.
2.T2: Low-carbon energy and renewable energy goal, energy
efficiency improvement and CO2 reduction goal has
positive relationship in CO2 reduction, however
efficiency improvement will most effective among them.
3.T3: Energy efficiency improvement and CO2 reduction goal
will be useful in reduction of energy demand, but
energy efficiency improvement will be the best.
4.T4: Renewable energy development can reduce generating
cost by government subsidies; energy efficiency
improvement can lower demand for energy and then
reduce generating cost；CO2 reduction goal can affect
GDP, lower generating capacity and then decrease
generating cost. However,low-carbon energy and
technology can increase generating cost because of
higher price of gas and low-carbon technology.

並列關鍵字

Low-Carbon energy ； Renewable energy ； Carbon capture and storage(CCS) ； Input-Output analysis ； Electricity supply planning ； Greenhouse gas reduction

參考文獻

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