本研究旨在探討台灣產物保險業盈餘管理的現象與動機,實證分為四個部分檢定,首先,以盈餘數分配圖與盈餘變動數分配圖之分析,探討台灣產物保險業盈餘管理的程度;其次,利用Burgstahler and Dichev之Z檢定與Degeorge et al.之t-like檢定作實證分析;第三,使用賠款準備金提存為特定裁決性應計數,以加入誤差設定項的AR(1)模型之OLS迴歸分析,驗證各變數對台灣產物保險業操作賠款準備提存的影響;最後,再以展望理論檢定來解讀台灣產物保險業盈餘管理的動機。本研究實證發現,台灣產物保險業盈餘管理的程度顯著,特別是反映在「避免發生虧損」的盈餘管理現象,比「避免盈餘下滑」的更為顯著。同時檢定結果亦顯示,台灣產險業在縮小虧損數額與縮小盈餘下滑幅度的操作頗為明顯;但以賠款準備金提存,從事收益平穩化、節稅操作與綜合比率跨越監理門檻的動機並不顯著。此外,本研究檢定結果顯示,展望理論可以解讀台灣產物保險業為了避免發生虧損的盈餘管理動機,但對維持前期績效的盈餘管理動機,則解釋力較為薄弱。
Due to its highly regulated and opaque characteristics, the extent and motives of the earnings management on the Property-Casualty Insurers may be distinct. This paper first examines the extent to manage earnings to exceed each of two thresholds: zero earnings and zero earnings changes. Second, we test whether loss reserves were used to be the managed tools of the Property-Casualty Insurers. Third, we examines whether the prospect theory can explain these behavioral thresholds for earnings management. Our empirical result is that the density of the distribution of earnings discontinued between the insurer groups that had small positive earnings and the insurer groups that had small negative earnings. Therefore, the insurers managed earnings to avoid earnings losses, and to sustain recent performance. This study does not find the significant evidence of the earnings management, by manipulating loss reserves. However, our empirical result shows evidence that the prospect theory can explain the behavioral threshold for earnings management, by avoiding earnings losses.