本研究探討近年來報表重編趨勢並分析重編性質對預測準確性變化之影響。以分析師盈餘預測代表市場對重編事件之反應,以管理當局盈餘預測觀察公司在重編後與誠信之相關性,探討預測資訊是否隨重編之原因及重編重大性之不同而對重編前後預測準確性之變化有不同影響。 本研究以2002年至2009年間曾經為國內上市(櫃)、興櫃公司有財務報表重編之季報、年報為樣本,其中以2009年度為重編份數最多、變動幅度最大之一年且會計原則變動之重編原因比例最高,可能原因來自於全球性之金融風暴及財務會計準則第十號公報之適用,造成企業自願性重編。2008年度為重編家數比例最低但強制性重編最高之一年,顯示該年度報表重編的品質最差。平均而言,管理當局在重編日後之預測準確性提升,分析師則無一定之變化。重編若具重大性則對分析師稅前盈餘預測準確性變化的影響程度最大。重編後純益率上升或重編次數增加,都會使得分析師稅前盈餘預測準確性降低。重編後損益變動幅度越大反而使得分析師的預測準確性提升。不論是分析師之營收或稅前盈餘預測,公司盈餘變異性與分析師在重編後之預測誤差率呈顯著負相關。在實務上,本研究之實證結果可提供報表使用者,瞭解重編事件發生後相關預測資訊可靠性之參考。
This study investigates the trends in financial statement restatements since 2002 and analyzes the impact of accounting restatements on earnings forecast accuracy. We use analyst forecasts to proxy for investor beliefs and examine whether restatements increase uncertainty about the credibility and competence of the managers that are associated with the management earnings forecast. We examine how changes in the earnings forecast vary depending on the reason for restatements and the materiality of restatements. This study investigates a large sample of financial statement restatements over the period 2002-2009. Financial statement restatements occur most frequently in 2009, and the lowest-quality of financial statement restatements are in 2008, as some companies restated the same financial statement more than once. We find that the accuracy of analyst earnings forecasts enhance significantly following the restatement. On the other hand, we find a significant positive relation between the absolute value of the change of firm’s profitability and analyst earnings forecast accuracy following restatements. Our paper contributes to the knowledge on how restatements affect the earnings forecast accuracy.