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  • 學位論文

颱洪災害預警機制特性與組成因素—多屬性價值理論之應用

The Characteristics and Determinants of Typhoon Hazard Warning System: A Multi-attribute Value Theory

指導教授 : 洪鴻智
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摘要


台灣是一個常受到颱洪災害侵襲的國家,每年颱洪災害造成的損失與衝擊亦非常嚴重。許多研究指出,透過完善的災害預警機制,可提升居民風險認知(或知覺)及調適能力,而有助於降低災害損失。然傳統對於災害預警機制設計,較強調其構成要素的界定與扮演功能的討論,較少解釋與評估其構成要素的相對重要性,亦較少考慮預警機制使用者的需求特性。故本研究透過多準則評估方法,建置颱洪災害預警機制評估體系。亦將應用多屬性價值理論,藉由專家與學者的問卷調查,建立預警機制構成要素的價值函數(value function),將預警機制設計相關要素的特性一般化。另亦將透過聯合分析與二項羅吉特迴歸模型,瞭解專家學者認為預警機制設計的決定性要素。 研究發現,颱洪災害預警機制中最重要因素為預警資訊,若能透過預警資訊及時與準確地將災害訊息傳遞給居民,促使危險地區居民採取回應行為。此外,土石流潛勢地區與洪災潛勢地區中發布預警機制所重視因素有明顯差異。在土石流潛勢地區中若強調資訊發送頻率、資訊使用語言與老年人口比例等變數,將能使預警機制達到較佳之效用,而洪災害潛勢地區則強調資訊傳遞管道、資訊發送頻率與居民風險知覺三個變數。這些研究結果除可協助災害管理者,瞭解災害預警機制建置過程,不同要素扮演的角色,亦可提供完善預警機制須考慮的內涵及重要事項。

並列摘要


Taiwan is a country attacked by typhoons frequently. As the reason, the impact and property loss caused by typhoons are heavily. Recent studies have shown that establishing an integrated hazard warning system is able to enhance residents’ cognition of risk(or perception), and reduce the loss. Different from the traditional design of hazard warning system emphasis on the definition of constituted elements and discussion of played function. The study figures out further explained and assessed the relative importance of constituted element, and users’ demand characteristics in warning system. This study will set up a typhoon hazard warning system by the multi-criteria evaluation method and based on the multi-attribute value theory, establish value function of the constituent elements, and generalize the characteristics of relevant elements in warning system. Secondly, conjoint analysis and binary logit model is using to understand the professional-comprehend decisive factors of the warning system. From the study results, the warning information is the important factor in the typhoons hazard warning system. If hazard message passed to residents timely and accurately by the warning formation, promote residents of hazardous areas to take response behaviors. Furthermore, the releases of warning system factors are significantly difference in vulnerable debris flow areas and vulnerable floodwater areas. It emphasized that information frequency of delivered, information language of using and proportion of elderly population are main variables in vulnerable debris flow areas, enable warning system achieve better effectiveness, and then it emphasized that information channels of transmitted, information frequency of delivered, risk perception of residents are main variables in vulnerable floodwater areas. The conclusion shows the process of hazard warning system, the role of different elements, and provides comprehensive connotations and important matters of the warning system design.

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