零售承租商於不確定環境下退出價值之研究-以租金模式差異為例

A study on exit option for retail tenant under uncertainty

林奕維(Yi-Wei Lin)

指導教授 ： 游舜德

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/不動產與城鄉環境學系/碩士(2008年)

摘要

收益型不動產價值主要是由其長期穩定收益所組成，而零售不動產也不例外，其價值來源便在於出租其零售空間後所可獲得之租金收益。此租金收益受到許多因素影響，不論是不動產本身特性、區域經濟因素、總體經濟環境甚或不動產管理方式都會深深影響到其租金收益。根據相關文獻之整理，可以發現到在眾多租金影響因素中，抽成租金甚或抽成率之決定乃零售不動產租金收益相當重要影響因素。不論是對於地主或者承租商而言，抽成租金都帶來相當多之益處，且不失為一個聯繫地主和承租商間之管理良具。
研究中認為在不同風險狀態下，不同租金模式將對於承租商產生不同之影響。因此本研究將風險概念帶入原有之一般投資評估中，試圖透過@RISK運算軟體以及確定等值法（Certainty Equivalent Flows）之計算應用，希望將一般之投資評估資訊作更加深入探討且運算模擬出承租商在不同市場狀態下所產生之退出價值為何。透過上述方式之運用，研究中發現在不同的租金模式下，承租商會面臨到不同之風險狀態。固定租金對於承租商所帶來之風險將大於抽成租金之風險，且不同的市場類型、租金模式下，承租商所產生之退出價值也大不相同，也說明了目前一些零售不動產經營不善之現象。最後針對透過3D圖形之表達，將抽成率、營業額以及承租商獲利情形視為三軸，且透過此圖形將可以發現到不同的營運狀態下，應有其所適合之抽成率。當承租商面臨到過高之抽成率或獲利情形不如預期時便會退出市場。

關鍵字

商用不動產 ； 租約模式 ； 承租風險

並列摘要

Income property value is mainly consists of its long steady income, retail property is, too. The value comes from its rental income by renting its retail spaces. This rental income is influenced by a lot of factors, likes characteristics of the property, regional economic factor, overall economic environments, even property management styles will affect the rental income deeply. According to the arrangement of relevant researches, we can find numerous factors which influence rent .Especially percentage rent and percentage rate are two important operating characteristics of the retail property. No matter for the landlord or tenant, the percentage rent brings a lot of benefits, and can yet be regarded as a bridge to contact landlords and tenant.
We think different rent modes will also produce different influences on tenants under different kind of risks. Therefore, we bring the concept of the risk into the original estimation of the general investment. We attempt to use RISK operation software and Certainty Equivalent Flows method to organize the estimation information of the general investment and probe into the tenant’s “exit option” under different kind of risks. By the application of above-mentioned ways, we could find that tenants will face different kind of risks under different rent modes. The base rent mode brings bigger risk to tenant than the percentage rent mode does. Besides, tenant’s “exit option” is significantly different in different kind of market types and rent modes. That is why there are some retail properties can’t do their best in management. In the end of the research, we use 3D figures to explain that there should be a suitable percentage rate for every tenant. When the tenant faces higher percentage rate or the profit is under the expectation, the tenant will decide to quit the market.

並列關鍵字

commercial property ； investment value ； exit value

參考文獻

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