iPhone新產品宣告對台灣電子供應鏈廠商股價影響之研究

The Impact of iPhone Announcement on The Taiwan Electronics Industry Supply Chain

周怡君(Chou Yi-Chun)

指導教授 ： 陳達新

國立臺北大學/商學院/企業管理學系/碩士(2014年)

摘要

蘋果公司於2007年開始推出iPhone系列手機，開啟了智慧型手機的新世代。新產品的發展為企業成長的重要動力，iPhone一系列的推出，使蘋果公司成為盈利最多的手機製造商，而新產品宣告也往往帶來正向的市場效果。蘋果的熱賣引發台灣交易市場對相關供應鏈的重視，且如今供應鏈廠商已經是產品推出成功與否的關鍵。於是本研究將結合新產品宣告及供應鏈廠商做分析，利用事件研究法驗證其產品宣告是否為供應鏈廠商帶來異常報酬，以及藉實證結果分析影響累積異常報酬的因素。
本研究採用事件研究法做為分析工具，選擇最新一代iPhone5的宣告日作為本研究的事件日，事件日前10日至後10日，共21個交易日作為事件期，估計期為事件日前11個交易日至前130個交易日，共計120個交易日。以台灣電子產業作為研究對象，採用分析師的報告，篩選出23家企業為iPhone5在台主要的供應鏈廠商，產業橫跨PC系統、光電、主機板、電子零組件等類別，使用市場模式來進行估計。此外並以迴歸分析探討對累積異常報酬造成影響的因素。
實證結果顯示新產品宣告效果對iPhone供應鏈廠商確實產生影響。在宣告日當天確實出現顯著正的異常報酬，然而，在事件日過後一天，正異常報酬立刻反轉為負，正向報酬並沒有延續下去。另外對累積異常報酬的解釋變數中，發現投資機會、iPhone營收佔比有出現顯著的解釋力。

關鍵字

事件研究法 ； 新產品宣告效果 ； 供應鏈廠商

並列摘要

In 2007, Apple launched iPhone series mobile, starting the new generation of smart phones. The development of new products provokes business growth, and also the announcements of new product often bring a positive effect on the market. After the series of iPhone launched, Apple have become one of the most profitable mobile phone manufacturers, which caused people concern about the supply chain manufacturers. Therefore, this study will combine the announcement of new products with supply chain manufactures, using event study methodology to verify the abnormal returns of the supply chain vendors, and trying to find the factors which affect the cumulative abnormal returns through the empirical result.
We use event study to analysis Taiwan supply chain of Taiwan. The date of declaration of the iPhone5 as the event date. Supply chain manufacturers were selected by analysts' reports. There are 23 companies were selected as our sample companies. Industry sectors across the PC systems, photoelectric, motherboards, and electronic components. Using the market model to estimated abnormal return and cumulative return. In addition, using regression analysis the factors affecting cumulative abnormal returns.
The empirical results show that the new product announcement effect does have an impact on the iPhone supply chain manufacturers. On the announcement day a significant positive abnormal return happened. However, the positive abnormal return immediately reverse the negative. Investors using reverse trading strategy to get short-term profit. Moreover, investment opportunities and iPhone revenue accounting these two variables can be used to explain the cumulative abnormal returns.

參考文獻

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