IPCC於2007年公佈的第四版氣候變遷綜合評估報告,整理出全球氣候變遷的現象與趨勢,吸引全球對於此議題之關切。農地為糧食生產的主要用地,扮演人類糧食生產的重要角色,農業生產用地對於氣候因子相當敏感,在探討氣候變遷議題上,農地相對的成為重視的焦點。本研究之主要目的在探討未來台灣受氣候變遷現象之衝擊下,農地所受之影響,並以適宜性分析方法(suitability analysis),進行農地使用適宜性之GIS模擬評估,並透過北部區域稻作適宜性之實證研究,藉以提供農地稻作受氣候變遷影響之資訊,提供相關政府單位,作為未來因應氣候變遷衝擊之農地規劃利用策略擬定基礎與改善現有執行方法之依據。 由研究結果得知,在情境SRES-A2下,氣候變遷影響農地稻作生長之區域範圍相當廣泛, 幾乎超過半數之農地皆受氣候變遷之影響,未來將不適宜稻作栽種,其中以桃園縣、宜蘭縣兩個北部區域農業大縣最為嚴重。在情境SRES-B2部分,蘭陽平原地區仍然是受影響最嚴重之地區,台北縣淡水、金山沿海平原也是受影響之地區。較不同的是,在情境SRES-B2下,農地適宜程度較高之桃園、新竹沿海平原地區,未來受氣候變遷影響較輕微,仍然可持續為稻作之生產使用,維持各縣市之農業生產。綜觀上述,SRES-B2受氣候變遷影響較小,適宜稻作耕種之農地面積比例仍高,在未來社會經濟之趨勢與二氧化碳之排放量控制,應朝SRES-B2之情境努力,使氣候變遷之影響降至最低,減少未來對農業生產之衝擊。而從空間分佈來看,受影響之地區多位於現今地形適宜生長之地區,未來在稻作栽培上,需更加注意氣候變遷所受之影響,整合各農作物所適宜之氣候條件,以利未來農業規劃與利用。
IPCC announced the Fourth Assessment Report of climate changes comprehensive assessment report in 2007. It contained the phenomenon and the trend of global climate changes, and attracted the worldwide concern to this topic. Since the farmland is the main area of grain-production and always acts as the important role of human food security, as well as the agricultural production area is quite sensitive to the climate factors, it has become a popular focus relatively in probing into the topic of the climate changes. The main purpose of this study is to get insight on the impact of climate changes on the Taiwan’s farmland suitability in the future. By means of the suitability analysis method, the study carries out the simulation of paddy farmland to provide the information of how the suitability of farmland is influenced by climate changes for agricultural planning reference. The analysis results show that under the SRES-A2 wide areas are affected locating in the areas of Taoyuan and Ilan plain and mostly are high suitable for paddy growth. Under the SRES-B2, the Ilan plain area remains the most seriously influenced area. Besides, the coastal plain of Tam-Sui and Jin-San in Taipei are the influenced area. The difference between SRES-A2 and SRES-B2 is that under SRES-B2 the coastal plain area in Hsinchu and Taoyuan are less influenced. According to the spatial distribution, the influenced areas lie in the areas where the topography is suitable for agriculture and we should pay more attention to the agricultural areas affected by climate changes in the future.
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