新產品開發風險之評估-FAHP法與ANP法之比較

Risk Assessment in New Product Development – A Comparison Between FAHP and ANP Method

羅逸戎(Yi-Jung Lo)

指導教授 ： 張洝源

國立虎尾科技大學/管理學院/工業工程與管理研究所/碩士(2010年)

https://doi.org/10.6827/NFU.2010.00009

摘要

近年因市場需求快速變化、顧客喜好也難以預測，導致新產品生命週期大幅降低，所以企業必須加速新產品開發的速度，快速反應變動市場的需求；在追求開發速度提升之時，往往忽略新產品開發能否成功，新產品開發成功的機率約為25%，該如何降低新產品開發之風險，提高新產品開發的成功率，本研究即針對新產品開發之風險因素作探討，運用系統性的方法求取新產品開發的風險值，將新產品開發方案之優先次序排列，作為決策者制定決策之參考。
本研究依相關文獻將新產品開發風險歸納為生產風險、研發風險、組織風險、供應商風險、市場競爭風險及產品可靠度風險，運用模糊層級分析法和詮釋結構建模技術結合分析網路程序法，評比上述風險因素之風險權重，得知期望風險值最低三項風險依序為研發風險、市場競爭風險及產品可靠度風險。求取風險權重後，再針對A網路通信設備公司之無線網卡三項開發方案進行評比，求得新產品A為該公司開發風險最低之方案，作為新產品開發之依據。

關鍵字

新產品開發風險 ； 模糊層級分析法 ； 詮釋結構建模技術 ； 分析網路程序法

並列摘要

Due to rapid market-demand changes and difficulty for estimating customers’ preferences in past few years, life cycles of new products have been shrunk substantially. Enterprises shall accelerate new product development as to respond to rapid market changes and demands. The success for the R & D of a new product is usually neglected in favor of pursuing enhancement of accelerating product R & D. The success probability of R & D of a new product is about 25%. This research has thus focused on how to reduce the new product development risk and to raise the success rate of a new product development. The risk factors correlating with new product development is thus explored in this research. Systematic methodologies are applied in this research for achieving new product development.
Relevant reference documents are applied in this research to separate new product development risks into production risk, R & D risk, organization risk, supplier’s risk, market-competition risk and product-reliability risk. After Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) and Analytic Network Process (ANP) are integrated for evaluating risk weight-average ratios of those risk factors, it has been deduced in this research that the 3 lowest expectation risk values are R & D risk, market-competition risk and product-reliability risk. After risk weight-average ratios are calculated, an evaluation is conducted on 3 development proposals of wireless internet card of A Internet Tele Equipment Enterprise. The product A is evaluated to be A Enterprise’s development proposal with the lowest risk level. Such evaluation is used as references for deciding new product development.

並列關鍵字

New Product Development ； Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process ； Interpretive Structural Modeling ； Analytic Network Process

參考文獻

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