開發中國家與已開發國家之生質能與經濟發展關係之研究

The causal relationship of biomass and economy between developed and developing countries

劉玉晶

指導教授 ： 虞孝成

國立交通大學/管理學院/科技管理研究所/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6842/NCTU.2013.00061

摘要

近年由於環境保護及能源安全等議題，使得許多國家紛紛朝向再生能源發展，而生質能亦屬其一。由於目前大力發展生質能之國家甚少，故本篇論文以2009年生質能發電比例為選樣條件挑選出前十大國家，再以ECM模型探討1990至2009年間生質能發電與經濟發展間之因果關係，並進行對選定的開發中群組與已開發群組之比較。

本研究結果顯示，對已開發國家群組而言，經濟發展對於生質能發電具有短期負向影響關係，而生質能發電對於經濟發展具有短期正向影響；在長期時，僅存在經濟發展對於生質能發電的單向穩定關係。至於開發中國家群組，生質能發電對於經濟發展，短期具有負向影響關係，且經濟發展與生質能發電具有雙向長期均衡穩定關係。

基於實證結果，本研究建議已開發國家群組可大量採取促進發展生質能的發電政策，包含投資生質能發電的稅務減免政策、研發發展生質能的財務政策或鼓勵發展生質能發電之補貼等等，以促進此些國家的經濟發展。對於開發中國家群組之建議為，應採取提升生質能發電的技術水準、提高能源使用效率的使用能力，並建造更為完善的基礎建設之政策。

關鍵字

生質能 ； 經濟發展 ； 因果關係研究 ； 面板數據

並列摘要

Recently, owing to the environmental protection, energy security, and other popular issues, several countries take energy policy seriously and would change policy toward renewable energy, including biomass energy. Nowadays, few countries rely on electricity generation from biomass energy or few are famous for biomass power generation in great volume. Therefore, this paper selects observed samples in a much more subject and relative way by comparing the proportion of biomass electricity generation to total generation. Thus, in this paper top 10 countries are selected for study by taking the proportion in 2009 as criteria, and the period from 1990 to 2009 were investigated for these 10 counties which are divided to developed and developing group. By taking the panel error correction model, the causal relationships of these two groups are verified and will be compared.

The empirical results for developed group reveal that negative unidirectional causality from biomass power generation to real GDP and positive unidirectional causality from real GDP to biomass exist in the short-run, and equilibrium relationship from real GDP to biomass power generation exists in the long-run. For developing group, only negative unidirectional causality from real GDP to biomass electricity generation exists in short-run, and in long-run there is bidirectional equilibrium relationship.

Based on the empirical results this paper suggests that developed group can take several policy to encourage biomass generation, including tax incentive, subsidy on investment and R&D, and so on. In addition, we advise developing group should enhance the technology, increase energy efficiency, and establish infrastructure.

並列關鍵字

biomass ； economy ； causal relationship ； panel data

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