商業銀行購併之價值評估

摘要金融控股法通過後，銀行間掀起一股合併的風潮，銀行合併可透過成本節省或收入增加達成合併銀行整體價值增加之目的。收入增加可透過金融服務的多樣化及金融商品跨售達成；成本節省可透過關閉分行或減少員工數目達成。大多數的文獻討論金融機構合併之動機使用事後分析法，收集合併後存續銀行之財務資料，使用實證分析討論合併之成效及動機。較少文獻以合併之事前觀點討論銀行合併之預期價值增加率，且因思考實質選擇權評估法較傳統現金流量法具有管理彈性的效益以及擴張性的現金價值。因此，本文參考Schwartz and Moon’s (2000) 提出之連續時間模型，嘗試建立可供銀行合併價值計算之模型。為了瞭解模型之可行性，本文使用聯邦銀行購倂中興銀行之個案進行討論。擬計算出兩家銀行合併前之個別價值，及合併後之整體價值，以了解此購倂案前後價值變化情形。模擬結果聯邦銀行合併前之整體價值為NT$ 206.94（單位為億元）；中興銀行為NT$1（單位為億元）。合併後之整體價值為NT$229.68（單位為億元），價值增加率約為10.45%。最後針對合併前聯邦銀行各項業務概況進行說明，並與聯邦銀行合併後新分行的經營績效及合併後整體經營績效進行比較分析，以了解聯邦銀行所採行的經營策略對是否能為其合併產生綜效，對其合併後價值有所助益。

關鍵字

購併；實質選擇權；現金流量法；銀行價值

並列摘要

Abstract No one can deny that there is a trend in financial consolidation, including domestic and international banks, around the world for the prevalent perception of large organizations to be “too big to fall”. Bank mergers can increase value by reducing costs and/or increasing revenues. Revenue grows for diversification or cross-selling of bank service. Cost-down is from eliminating redundant facilities, staffs or even a department. However, most of the existing literatures examine the behavior of bank consolidation in the way of collecting financial data after banks consolidated and then try to figure out what the motives of the participating banks seeking for and what merger benefits for different stakeholders. On the important M&A topic, there is few paper to explore the merger gain in the ex ante viewpoint. That is, before the event of bank consolidation, what impact will be occurred for each independent bank or what benefit will be achieved for shareholders if the decision of M&A is made is analyzed in advance. The real- option method than the traditional cash - flow method to have management elastic benefit and the expansion cash value. We modify Schwartz and Moon’s (2000) model to price the transaction value of bank and calculate the merger-related gain as the value created from the merger activity. We implement the procedure to value the merger of two commercial banks in Union Bank and Standard Bank. After estimating the model parameters by historical financial reports, and solving by simulation, the value of the Union Bank is NT$ 20,694,000 thousands and the Standard Bank is NT$100,000 thousands. The consolidation value is NT$22,968,000 thousands, and the increased bank value ratio is 10.45%. Finally aims at before the merge the Union bank each service survey to carry on the explanation, and the new branch''s management achievements and the merge the whole management achievements carries on the comparative analysis after the federation bank amalgamation. For understood the Union bank picks the line of management strategy to whether can have the synthesis effect for its merge, the value has after its merge is of help.