公共建設計畫預算編列與執行決策最佳化模式之研究

The optimal model of the budget compilation and the implementation policy in infrastructure planning

陳全官(Chiuan-Guan Chen)

指導教授 ： 顏上堯

國立中央大學/工學院/土木工程學系碩士在職專班/碩士(2006年)

摘要

對政府公部門推動公共建設計畫而言，籌編預算、調整計畫實施順序及執行預算過程之控管等，常是決策者面臨之難題。以往常憑工作經驗編列預算之作業方式，在建設計畫數量較少、性質單純時可獲得較精確之結果，但在計畫分類較多、工作期限及資源要求均有不同時，則由於欠缺整體規劃機制，造成精確度不足而過度寬列預算，浪費預算資源，亦排擠其他施政計畫之推行；再者，部分計畫預算執行過程中，常面臨民眾抗爭、市場波動等不確定因素而延誤執行，由於欠缺應變機制，除個別計畫延宕外亦影響整體計畫執行，部分人力因而閒置未妥善運用，造成預算執行率偏低。本研究除探討政府機關現階段公共建設計畫類型及預算編製過程外，並檢討地方政府執行預算常見之作業缺失，導入預算規劃及資源分配觀念，建立規劃模式，作為決策者編列合適預算及控管計畫執行之參考。
本研究利用整數規劃最佳化模式，對預算編列與執行過程，建構3階段數學規劃模式，導入廣義及不均質性的指派觀念，於現有人力資源等限制下，經由最佳化模式調整各計畫案預算編列，及規劃執行期程。建構之規劃模式，當外在環境及限制條件改變時，可隨時依最新條件調整參數，重新指派。另經由敏感度分析，決策者可依據各參數敏感度變化趨勢，主動調整各作業計畫資源分配，以滿足最佳化作業排程。本研究模式經過適度調整，可運用於不同機構參考使用，具有配合機關特性調整之彈性。在求解方法上，將各作業計畫所需人力、作業時程、估計個別預算及各單位基本需求等限制，訂定各限制式之參數，輸入LINGO 8.0套裝軟體求解，即可直接輸出最佳化預算編列、調整及執行檢討等結果。為驗證模式適用性，以桃園縣某中型之鄉鎮市公所94年度建設計畫案件，為模擬範例測試，測試結果與人工經驗指派方式比較，顯示成效良好。故本研究可靈活運用於先期規劃及即時檢討等預算規劃問題，具有輔助決策者辦理規劃作業之實用性。

關鍵字

公共建設計畫 ； 最佳化 ； 預算 ； 整數規劃

並列摘要

As far as promoting infrastructure planning to government common department is concerned, preparing budget, adjusting procedure and controling implementation is often the difficult problem that the policymaker faces. Often compiled the budget homework way according to working experience in the past, can obtain more accurate result when the construction plan is less in quantity, simple in nature. As for the more detailed planning, limited working time and resources, waste of budget resource and obstruction of other infrastructure planning will be caused because of deficiency in the overall planning mechanism, inaccuracy in planning budget. Moreover, during the implementation procedure, some budget planning will be delayed as a result of public resistance and market fluctuation. Lack of flexible mechanism will lead to put off of individual plan and influence in the intergral plan, idleness of manpower, that is, low implementation efficiency. This research confer on the planning type of government department and budget compilation procedure, additionally, focus on the common defect in planning implementation, introducing concept of budget plan and resource allotment, establishing planning model, serving as reference for policy-maker to compile budget and control implementation.
This research, making use of the optimal model of integer planning, construct 3-stage math model for the compilation of budget and its implementation, introduce wide-spread concept. Even under the limit of the present manpower, this optimal model can adjust budget compilation and make completion plan. This planning model can modulate the parameter according to the external change of environment and limited condition. By analysis of sensitivity, policymaker can initiatively adjust the resource allotment according to its change trend to make the optimal arrangement. Thanks to its flexibility, this model, after proper adjustment, can be referred to by different organization.As to the way of solution, all limited factors, such as needed manpower, implementation schedule, estimated individual budget and basic requirement of each department, also their parameter should be typed into software of LINGO 8.0 for the optimal budget compilation, adjustment and review. For testing its applicability, 94 annual infrastructure plan of a public department in a middle town, Taoyuan County was employed as simulation. The testing result shows this model works more effectively than experience-oriented model. Obviously, this research can be easily employed in prior plan and instant review, practicably assisting policymaker in making and implementing plan.

並列關鍵字

optimal model ； infrastructure planning ； budget

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