存活與長期追蹤資料之聯合模型－台灣愛滋病實例研究

Joint Model for Survival and Longitudinal Data － A Case Study on Taiwan AIDS Data

施伊珊(Yi-shan Shih)

指導教授 ： 曾議寬

國立中央大學/理學院/統計研究所/碩士(2007年)

摘要

十多年來，關於高效抗逆轉錄病毒治療的研究已有許多，也由諸多的數據證實使用此種療法確實可以延長發病時間與降低死亡率。本篇使用141個已發病的台灣愛滋病人資料，分為有無使用雞尾酒療法兩組，研究的目的為探討雞尾酒療法對於已發作的愛滋病人的存活時間的影響及其CD4值的變化情況。我們主要使用兩個方法：圖形法，用以初步瞭解資料所包含的訊息，得到CD4值和使用雞尾酒療法與存活機率為正相關的可能結論。聯合模型，因為長期性資料的測量時間不固定而造成測量誤差，但在重複測量的次數夠多且誤差較小的情況下，使用聯合模型所得到的估計值具有一致性、近似常態與有效性等好的性質。我們得到的結果與之前研究的結果都是一致的，使用雞尾酒療法可以使CD4值上升而達到延長生命的結果。

關鍵字

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並列摘要

Over the past decade, much research have been done on Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART), which has been proven to be able to postpone morbidity and lower mortality rate. This research collects data from 141 AIDS patients in Taiwan, which are separated into two groups, HAART and non-HAART. The research objective is to investigate the effect HAART and the CD4 cells to lifetime of AIDS patients. Research methods include graphic techniques and joint-modeling approach. Graphic techniques allow us to understand basic information from data, and the relationship between CD4 cells and mortality rate with the use of HARRT. Biased estimation usually occurs in the longitudinal data with intermittent measurement schedule. Joint modeling approach can correct this bias. Furthermore, the estimates derived by joint model have been proved to be consistent and efficient. Our findings are consistent with previous studies. The use of HARRT enables the increase of CD4 cells and extension of patients’ lifetime.

並列關鍵字

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參考文獻

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