分析師預測與會計異常現象

Analysts’ Forecasts and Accounting Anomaly

賴晨瑀(Chen-yu Lai)

指導教授 ： 曹壽民 ； 鄭漢鐔

國立中央大學/管理學院/會計學研究所/碩士(2011年)

摘要

本文旨在探討分析師現金流量預測是否能使投資人在當期股價中較充分地反應出未來現金流量所傳遞的資訊內涵。本研究認為當分析師發佈現金流量預測時，具有監督管理當局編製當期現金流量資訊之品質，若財務報表的現金流量品質提升，則投資人對於現金流量的評價較高，因而降低低估現金流量持續性的異常現象。實證結果發現，有分析師現金流量預測之公司，其現金流量錯誤評價的異常現象確實有顯著下降，因此，本文研究結果顯示，分析師現金流量預測所傳遞的現金流量資訊，具有幫助投資人較正確評估現金流量的價值，降低現金流量異常現象，並減緩股價遞延至下一期作修正迴轉延遲反應的效力。

關鍵字

現金流量異常現象 ； 分析師現金流量預測 ； 應計項目異常現象

並列摘要

This study examines how analysts’ cash flow forecasts accelerate investors’ responses to the future implications of current cash flow information. I argue that when analysts issue cash flow forecasts, they serve a monitoring role over a firm’s reported cash flow information, which in turn enables investors to assign more weight to operating cash flow and thus reduce investors’ underestimation of cash flow information. Consistent with this idea, I find that the provision of analysts’ cash flow forecasts is associated with a significant reduction on anomalous mispricing of operating cash flows. Our results suggest that analysts’ cash flow forecasts improve the efficacy of investors’ reactions to earnings announcements by conveying information in the cash flow components of reported earnings.

並列關鍵字

Accrual anomaly ； Analysts’cash flow forecasts ； Cash flow anomaly

參考文獻

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