地震災害風險評估之傷亡評估模組的建置

Earthquake Risk Assessment Of The Casualty Assessment Module To Establish

陳建益(CHIEN-I CHEN)

指導教授 ： 蔣偉寧

國立中央大學/工學院/土木工程學系/碩士(2011年)

摘要

台灣位於環太平洋地震帶中歐亞板塊及菲律賓海板塊的交界處，為地震發生相當頻繁的區域，近年來接連遭遇多次強烈地震的侵襲，如1999年921南投集集大地震、2002年331花蓮外海大地震及2004年5月1日花蓮地震等，尤其是1999年的921集集大地震，造成有形與無形的傷害損失慘重，引起政府機關與社會大眾高度且密切的關注。
不少專家學者長期持續進行地震災害的研究，如巨災風險評估軟體RiskTracer及台灣地震損失評估系統TELES。本研究所使用之分析系統為RiskTrace，此評估系統是由數個災害資料庫和分析系統組成，系統內主要可分為四個模組，分別為推測事件模組、危害度分析模組、損害分析模組及財務分析模組。
地震災害除了造成建築物的損害及財物損失外，對於人口的傷亡也是不容忽視，以往在傷亡分析上使用無移動性的戶籍人口進行分析，此種無移動性的靜態人口，也就無法看出人口流動的變化，且地震的發生並非皆為單一時間點，不同時間點之地震事件，須對應該時間點上之人口分佈，如此才能分析出較為實際之結果。此本研究建置人口傷亡分析模組的目的，便是希望能增進現有之評估系統，使分析結果能夠更為提升。
研究中考量人口移動的特性，利用離散率與時段的定義進行動態人口的推估，再進一步把推估之人口依其分配率分配至結構物內，接下來對建築物損害分析了解不同程度損害之發生率，最後針對建築物不同損害考量不同傷亡的發生，建置出傷亡分析模組。本文將採用近年來傷亡慘重的921集集地震進行模擬，以證實該模組能有效達到傷亡評估，最後，模擬全台地震之損失，以傷亡之超越機率曲線呈現，以應用於各種保險/再保險、新興替代風險移轉工具商品之設計與訂價。

關鍵字

地震災害損失評估 ； 靜態人口 ； 動態人口 ； 建築物損害

並列摘要

Taiwan is located in the circum-Pacific seismic belt and the Eurasian Plate and the Philippine Sea plate at the junction of the earthquake area quite frequently, in recent years connecting to face the invasion of several strong earthquakes, such as the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Nantou 921, 2002 331 earthquake off the coast of Hualien and May 1, 2004 Hualien earthquake, particularly the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, causing damage to tangible and intangible losses, causing a high degree of government agencies and the community, and close attention.
Many experts and scholars long-term ongoing study of earthquake hazards, such as catastrophe risk assessment software RiskTracer and Taiwan earthquake damage assessment system TELES. Analysis system used in this study is RiskTrace, this evaluation system is composed of a number of disasters database and analysis system, the system can be divided into four modules, each module is speculated that the incident, hazard analysis module, damage analysis module, and financial analysis module.
In addition to buildings caused by earthquake damage and property losses, for the population of casualties can not be neglected, the previous analysis of the casualties on the use of non-household population mobility analysis, such a static-free mobility of the population, will not be able to see changes in population mobility, and earthquakes are all not a single point in time, at different time points of the seismic event, it should be on the point in time the population distribution, so that it can analyze the results more realistic. The casualties in this study population analysis module building purposes, is hoping to improve the assessment of the existing system, so that results can be more improved.
Study considered the characteristics of population movements, using discrete time definition of the rate and the dynamic population estimates, estimates of the population and then further divided according to their rate of distribution within the configuration structure, followed by analysis of damage to the building to understand the different degrees of damage the incidence of damage to the final consideration for the different buildings of different injuries occur, build a casualty analysis module. This paper will use the recent casualties of the 921 Chi-Chi earthquake simulation, to confirm that the module can effectively achieve the casualty assessment, and finally, loss of simulated earthquakes in Taiwan, to go beyond the casualties of the curve showing the probability to apply to a variety of insurance / reinsurance emerging alternative risk transfer product design and pricing tools.

並列關鍵字

earthquake damage assessment ； static population ； population dynamics ； building damage

參考文獻

【14】 葉錦勳，台灣地震損失評估系統-TELES，國家地震工程研究中心報告，2003

【9】 蕭嘉緯，考量風險相關性之地震風險評估研究，國立中央大學土木研究所碩士論文，2007

【13】 周士雄，地震風險與土地使用管理之研究，國立成功大學都市計畫研究所博士論文，2004

【2】 Maxx Dilley, Robert S. Chen, Uwe Deichmann, Arthur L. Lerner-Lam and Margaret Arnold, with Jonathan Agwe, Piet Buys, Oddvar Kjekstad, Bradfield Lyon and Gregory Yetman“NATURAL DISASTER HOTSPOTS: A GLOBAL RISK ANALYSIS Synthesis Report”,2005

【19】 Liang-Chun Chen, Hung-Chih Hung,“The Application and Issues of HAZ-Taiwan System on Urban Disaster Prevention Planning”, Taiwan-Japan Workshop on Seismic, 2003