中國出口對鄰近東亞國家之影響

The impact of China on the exports of East Asian countries

卓昆明(Kun-ming Jhuo)

指導教授 ： 楊志海

國立中央大學/管理學院/經濟學系/碩士(2012年)

摘要

本文以引力模型估計在1995~2010年間，東亞國家出口的貿易量是否受到中國出口的影響：亦即，中國出口對東亞國家出口是替代還是互補關係。除了整體貿易外，在全球生產分工趨勢的考量下，將產品依照生產階段劃分為初級產品、中間產品與最終產品，分別檢視中國出口對東亞國家三種財貨的效果。

計量方法採用fixed effect vector decomposition (FEVD)，此模型可以解決不隨時間改變的變數在固定效果模型下無法估計的問題，而且更具有效率性。實證結果發現不存在排擠效果，中國出口對東亞國家是互補。在東亞地區的生產分工下，中國為最終產品的加工組裝中心，並且從鄰近東亞國家進口原物料和中間財。當中國最終財貨出口越多的時候，他從鄰近東亞國家進口越多的原物料和中間財。所以中國市場的擴張可以推動亞洲其他國家出口成長。

關鍵字

固定效果 ； 排擠效果 ； 出口 ； 中國 ； 東亞 ； 引力模型

並列摘要

This paper uses gravity model to explore whether the growth of China’s exports is displacing exports of other Asian countries during the period 1995-2010. In addition to total trade, we consider the trend in “production sharing” and further disaggregate total trade into primary goods, intermediate goods and final goods according to the production stage.

In order to control for the unobserved heterogeneity between two countries, it is good to use fixed-effect model. However, a common problem that arises when applying the FEM estimator to gravity models is that the within transformation does not give the estimates for the time-invariant variables. We overcome this limitation by applying the FEVD, a recent panel data technique that allows estimating the time-invariant variables. This estimator has also the advantage to improve the estimation efficiency for those variables with a relative low within variance.

Our empirical result shows that china’s export is complementary rather than substitute. The ongoing process of production fragmentation opens up opportunities for countries to specialize indifferent slices of the production process depending on their relative cost advantage. China plays a role as the final assembly center in the production line, and imports intermediate goods from nearby Asian countries. When China exports more final goods, East Asia countries will export more raw materials and intermediate goods to China and the intra-region countries. So the “China effect” is actually positive.

並列關鍵字

fixed effect ； crowding out ； export ； China ； East Asia ； gravity model

參考文獻

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