應用模糊層級分析法探討我國電動車電池技術之發展策略

李勝隆(SHENG-LUNG Lee)

指導教授 ： 洪秀婉

國立中央大學/管理學院/管理學院高階主管企管碩士班/碩士(2012年)

摘要

因應全球暖化議題，電動車的發展將有助於終端能源效率之提升，因此各國政府無不競相投入研發，由於電池系統約佔電動車成本結構的47%為最重要的關鍵零組件，如何掌握電池材料、電池芯、電池模組及電源管理等核心技術為產業投資的關鍵課題。本研究首先藉由文獻探討與專家訪談，建構出一套符合理論與技術的研發決策準則，於進行專家問卷後再應用模糊層級分析法，擇定適合台灣電動車電池產業發展的核心技術，並藉由專利分析標定最佳的技術切入點，最後輔以專家訪談提出投資重點方向建議。本研究共發出60份專家問卷，回收有效問卷45份。研究結果顯示，產官學研專家評選最適合台灣電動車產業發展的核心技術為「電源管理技術」與「電池模組技術」，基於前述結果，本研究透過專利分析結果輔以專家訪談後，歸納出我國電動車電池產業技術宜朝創新發明與創意應用方向發展，在技術面則宜朝電池儲能管理與散熱技術方向研發，於投資重點部分，宜與日本主要廠商進行策略聯盟，以快速切入國際電動車電池供應鏈，進軍國際市場。

關鍵字

動車產業 ； 技術篩選 ； 電池技術 ； 模糊層級分析 ； 產業策略 ； 專利分析

並列摘要

In response to the threat from global warming, the development of Electric Vehicle (EV) has been considered to be the global trend and many nations have already drawn up the budget for researches. The development of Electric Vehicle will improve end-use energy efficiency. However, the key component within an EV in terms of overall cost and performance is battery system which shares 47% of the total cost. Therefore, how to obtain core technologies in regards to battery material, battery cell, module and power source management etc. is a crucial issue for the industry''s investment. This research first will establish a standardized R&D strategy that is in accordance with theory and technology by literature review and expert interviews. Then, the core technology best suited for the future development of Taiwan''s EV battery industry will be chose through the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP). Finally, using patent analysis and expert interviews, the key direction of investment and technology will be identified.
This research shows the most suitable technologies for development of Taiwan''s EV industry are "Power source management technology" and "Battery module technology". Through the result of patent analysis and after talking with experts, this research concludes that Taiwan''s EV Battery industry should focus on innovative invention and application while "Battery energy storage management" and "Cooling technology" are the key points for technology development. The focus in terms of investment should be working with Japan as a strategic alliance in order to speed up its supply chain and international market penetration.

並列關鍵字

Fuzzy AHP ； EV Industrial ； Battery tech. ； Tech. selection ； patent analysis ； Industrial strategies

參考文獻

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