應用景氣燈號於投資國內股票型共同基金之實證研究

An Empirical Study on the Equity Mutual Funds Investment Decision Using Business Indicators

蘇世佳(Shih-chia Su)

指導教授 ： 黃泓人

國立中央大學/管理學院/財務金融學系碩士在職專班/碩士(2012年)

摘要

「買低賣高」是投資的金律，然所有人卻對何時該進場、何時該出場，始終無所適從。本文即以此為目的，著手進行研究，冀期為投資大眾帶來更簡便的方式，提高投資報酬之獲利。
本研究以國內股票型共同基金為研究主體，採用定期定額之投資方式，選定2002年1月至2011年12月為研究期間，利用行政院經建會公布之景氣燈號做為投資進出場的依據，檢視搭配不同的買賣時點，與買進並持有的投資策略，兩者間績效之差異。
實證結果顯示：運用景氣燈號作為基金進出買賣依據的投資策略，其整體平均年化報酬率明顯優於不做任何動作而長期持續扣款的投資方式，且亦能有效降低報酬率之波動度。換言之，定期定額投資基金並搭配景氣燈號做為擇機進出場的策略，可輕鬆為投資人掌握低進高出的投資契機。

關鍵字

共同基金 ； 景氣燈號 ； 定期定額

並列摘要

The golden rule of investment is to sell into strength and buy on the dip. Unfortunately, it isn’t easy to apply as market timing can be elusive. This study aims to provide a convenient strategy that enhances returns for investors.

The study drew attention to the performances of dollar-cost averaging (DCA) equity mutual funds from January, 2002 to December, 2011 in Taiwan. The strategies concerning the timings and holding periods of “buying and selling” were compared against the backdrops of the business monitoring indicators compiled by the cabinet’s Council for Economic Planning and Development.

The empirical study has proven that by adopting the strategy of buying and selling DCA equity mutual funds in accordance with the business monitoring indicators, the average annualized performances surpassed those of regular long-term constant dollar plans. The same strategy also effectively mitigated volatility of investment returns. In summary, investors of the DCA equity mutual funds could easily grasp the highs and lows of the market if they could invest in accordance with the business monitoring indicators.

並列關鍵字

Business indicators ； Dollar cost-averaging ； Mutual funds

參考文獻

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