美伊戰爭與伊拉克民主化進程之初步研究—以杭廷頓的民主化理論檢之

Preliminary Study on Iraq Democratization Process and the U.S.-Iraq War： A Perspective from Huntington's Theory of Democratization

管怡聲(Kuan,Yi Sheng)

指導教授 ： 藍玉春

國立中正大學/社會科學院/政治學系/碩士(2012年)

摘要

Samuel P.Huntington指出，所謂民主化通常指的是從其他政權型態轉變成民主體制的過程；這個政權轉變過程大多是威權政體與反對勢力之間透過變革（威權體制的改革）、置換（革命、衝突的手段推翻威權政權）或移轉（政府與反對派通過談判達成協定）等方式來實現民主。它是國家內部政治體制的轉化，雖然外來勢力是推動民主化重要且具實質的助力，但卻不是造成威權政體民主化的主要變項。然而2003年3月爆發的美伊戰爭卻顛覆了Huntington的論點；這場戰爭是美國基於「民主和平論」的觀點，在未獲聯合國的授權的情況下，運用先發制人的軍事手段推翻海珊政權。戰後即透過政權更替策略扶植新政權，試圖將伊拉克改造成為一個民主化的國家，藉由推動伊拉克的民主以維護美國重大戰略利益除去其安全威脅。美國這種透過軍事的手段去干預他國內政，並將其轉變成民主政體的過程，在人類政治發展的光譜中，是相當罕見的；
戰後伊拉克雖然安全局勢動盪不安，重建工作亦不如預期，但在政治方面則是依美國所建構的民主化框架發展。在此期間，伊拉克的政局歷經了由美、英聯盟主導的「聯盟駐伊拉克臨時管理當局」管理時期、伊拉克臨管會主導的過渡政府、臨時政府、及經由人民選舉而產生的過渡政府時期；至2005年伊拉克完成首次正式國民議會選舉、2006年5月正式政府運作後，伊拉克的政體已逐步走向民主化。雖然伊拉克的政局是依循著美國所建構的民主架構，但學界卻對伊拉克的民主化進程是否能轉型成為一個民主國家議論紛紛，畢竟這種透過軍事干預所建構民主，仍有其不穩定性，尤其在美國撤軍後，伊拉克的民主政權是否持續鞏固，俟或是出現反民主化的逆流，甚至造成民主的崩潰，仍是未來需持續觀察的方向。
本文以Huntington的民主化理論為研究基礎，從美國對伊拉克的戰略佈局；戰爭前後伊拉克的政經發展及對外關係；伊斯蘭與西方文明間的民主觀；以及中東世界與伊拉克民主化交互影響等面向，初步歸納出未來伊拉克政局發展的可能走向，及影響其民主化的因素，以做為後續研究之找尋適切之方向。

關鍵字

政權更替 ； 先發制人 ； 民主和平論 ； 第三波民主化 ； 伊拉克民主化

並列摘要

Samuel P. Huntington pointed out that the so-called democratization generally refers to the process of transition from a non-democratic regime to a democratic system, and that normally it is a process by which democracy is realized through reform (the transform of an authoritarian regime), replacement (the overturn of an authoritarian regime through revolution or conflict) or shift (the reach of an agreement through negotiations between the government and opposition). Democratization is the transform of a political system within a nation. Although outside forces can greatly facilitate the process of democratization, they have never been a major variable in an authoritarian regime’s democratization process. Nevertheless, the outbreak of the Iraq War in March 2003 has overturned Huntington’s argument because this war was launched by the US based on the viewpoint of Democratic Peace Theory and without the UN’s authorization to topple Saddam Hussein’ regime by mounting pre-emptive military strikes. After the war, a new regime was erected to replace the old one to build Iraq into a democratic country, protect the US’ strategic interests and get rid of threats to the US’ security. The situation where a nation like the US uses its military force to intervene in another nation’s internal affairs and turn it into a democracy is rarely seen in human history.
Although after the war, Iraq has been in turmoil and its reconstruction has also failed to proceed as planned, the country is still developing within the democratic framework set by the US. Over this period, Iraq has gone through the US and Britain-led Coalition Provisional Authority, the Iraq Interim Government and the transitional government formed through popular election. In 2005, Iraq held its first parliamentary election and a new government was formally up and run in May 2006, moving the country toward democracy. Although Iraq’s development has been following the democratic path designed by the US, many academics still express their doubts over whether Iraq can transform itself into a democratic country because of the instability factor existing in a democracy constructed through military interference. Especially, the problem has become more serious after the withdrawal of US troops. Whether Iraq’s democracy can continue to develop or a countercurrent of anti-democratization would emerge and eventually cause its democracy to collapse remains to be seen.
This study is conducted based on Huntington’s Democratization Theory to examine the possible directions for Iraq’s future political development and the factors affecting Iraq’s democratization from the perspectives such as the US’ strategies toward Iraq War, the political development of Iraq and its foreign relations after the Iraq war, the difference in the democratic viewpoints between Islamic world and western countries, and the mutual influence between the Middle East and Iraq’s democratization. It is hoped that the results of this study can serve as useful reference for the directions of future researches.

並列關鍵字

Pre-emptive strike ； Democratic peace theory ； The Third Wave of Democratization ； Regime change ； Iraq Democratization

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