本研究探討躉售物價指數、失業率、臺灣加權股價指數、M1b貨幣總計數、工業生產指數、製造業銷售量指數、景氣對策信號、資本支出貸款利率對中小企業放款的影響,研究期間自1998年1月至2013年12月止的月資料。運用單根檢定、共整合模型、及衝擊反應函數、預測變異數分解進行實證分析。 研究結果發現失業率、臺灣加權股價指數、M1b貨幣總計數、工業生產指數、製造業銷售量指數、景氣對策信號、資本支出貸款利率與中小企業放款有共整合關係,顯示存在長期均衡關係。在誤差修正模型中各變數間彼此無具有較明顯的雙向回饋互動關係,M1b貨幣總計數對中小企業放款、工業生產指數、製造業銷售量指數、失業率具有單向的領先關係。由衝擊反應分析檢定發現中小企業放款對失業率之影響反映一直呈現負面影響,另外發現中小企業放款對資本支出貸款利率、製造業銷售量指數、工業生產指數、台灣加權股價指數長期呈現正面影響。 由預測誤差變異數分解結果得知,整體而言M1b貨幣總計數與臺灣加權股價指數解釋中小企業放款效果較佳。
This paper investigates the relationship between macroeconomic factors and mall and medium sized enterprises (SME) loans during the period of January 1998 to December 2013 in Taiwan. The macroeconomic factors used in this study include wholesale price index, unemployment rate, TAIEX, M1b, index of industrial production, manufacturing sales index, monitoring indicators (Light Signal), and capital expenditure loans rates. The results show a long-run equilibrium for unemployment rate, TAIEX, M1b monetary aggregates, index of industrial production, manufacturing sales index, monitoring indicators (Light Signal), capital expenditure loans rates under Cointegration test. In the VECM model variables among each other have no obvious two-way interaction feedbacks. M1b has a leading effect on SME loans, index of industrial production, manufacturing sales index, and unemployment rate. Using impulse response analysis SME lending has a negative impact on the unemployment rate. Further, loans and lending rates for SME have a positive impact on capital expenditures, manufacturing sales index, index of industrial production and TAIEX. Overall, from forecast error variance decomposition, M1b and TAIEX explained SME loans better than other variables