人類的生存極需仰賴水資源。而在人類的生活與發展上,水資源亦是必要要素之一。前世界銀行副總裁Ismail Serageldin曾經表示「本世紀的戰爭是爭奪石油的戰爭,而下個世紀的戰爭將是與水相關」,顯示水資源的重要性。因此,本文從非傳統安全下的環境安全之觀點出發,探討水資源與國際安全的關係,透過中國和印度在雅魯藏布江(印度境內稱為布拉馬普特拉河)的水資源爭議,觀察水資源對中國和印度的國家發展與穩定性之重要性,以及兩國對此爭議的看法與態度,分析水資源問題是否會成為兩國衝突的因素。 研究發現,當水資源為一國提供經濟或政治力量時,水資源將會成為國家爭奪的目標。在中印的水資源爭議中,雅魯藏布江(布拉馬普特拉河)的水資源對兩國各自的經濟發展與社會穩定性有顯著的重要性。中印兩國目前對於水資源爭議採取不同的處理方式,印度採取合作導向的作為,而中國的作為則較為衝突導向。然而,隨著兩國的用水壓力持續上升,而影響國家的生存與發展時,中印不可避免地將為水資源發生衝突。
Water resources play an essential role for human existence and socio-economic development. Ismail Serageldin, former World Bank Vice President, once said, “If the wars of this century were fought over oil, the wars of the next century will be fought over water.” highlighting the importance of water resources. From the perspective of environmental security, this study explores the relationship between water resources and international security. Through reviewing the water resources dispute between China and India on Yarlung Tsangpo River (Brahmaputra River), this study observes the importance of the water resources for China and India, especially domestic use and economic development. This study also analyzes the behaviors and attitudes of these two governments toward the dispute. With these finding, this study analyzes whether water resources problems cause conflict between China and India. This study found out that if water resources provide a source of economic or political strength, water resources are a goal of military action. In the case of the water resources dispute between China and India, the role of the water resources of Yarlung Tsangpo River (Brahmaputra River) is a defining factor in economic development and social stability for China and India. So far, these two countries have different behaviors toward the dispute. While the government of India tends to cooperative behavior, the government of China seems less active with cooperation. However, once water stress keeps increasing and impacts economic development and social stability, China and India will fight for water resources.