國際穀物貿易自由化對中國糧食安全影響之研究

The Effects of Grain Trade Liberalization on China’s Food Security

施明泰(Tyler Alden Smith)

指導教授 ： 黃文琪博士

國立屏東科技大學/管理學院/農企業管理系所/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6346/NPUST.2013.00055

摘要

有鑑於中國龐大且不斷成長之人口及逐漸富裕的經濟環境，可耕地面積與可供灌溉之水資源卻因此同時面臨擴增的瓶頸與匱乏的問題；近年來，越來越多人關心中國的糧食安全議題，探討其是否能夠有充足的糧食生產力來供給日趨增加的人口，且更重要的是，其糧食供應是否能確保人民免於挨餓。而中國相關當局也逐漸重視此一議題，在其糧食安全相關計畫當中，一個相當重要的主軸即是確保其自身的戰略性物資（strategic commodities）可以達到自給自足。農業類的戰略性物資包含：玉米、小麥以及稻米；而在1990年晚期之前，也包含了黃豆與棉花，但目前上述兩種農產品已完成其市場的開放。
在此計畫主軸的推動下，中國確實達到高度自給自足的目標；然此政策底下，卻仍凸顯其農業經濟的其他問題--相關作物生產成本較高且不具比較利益。由於中國鄉村地區勞動力眾多，每人可分得的平均耕地與水資源較少，造成相較於其他農業生產國，生產成本較高；而對於農產加工業者來說，若能夠透過國際市場來購買這些農產品，反而可以得到更加優惠的價格。綜合以上，本研究即是希望找尋一個評估方法，可測量中國的自給自足政策對於其糧食安全所帶來之影響，並期望能給予相關建議。
本研究之架構，首先藉由中國玉米、小麥、稻米的供給與需求狀況檢視其當前的糧食安全概況。其次再透過恩格爾係數（Engel’s coefficients）來檢視中國城市及鄉村收入與糧食安全當中的「易得性（accessibility）」兩者之間的相關程度。再者，比較農產加工業者選擇進口或購買中國當地生產作物的成本差異。最後，本研究透過黃豆市場的自由化，探討中國農產品自由化對於糧食安全指標在「供應度（availability）」與「易得性（accessibility）」兩大構面之影響。
而根據本研究結果顯示：
1.中國糧食的供應度在2007至2011的五年當中，有緩慢但穩定的成長趨勢。
2.城市人口收入的提升，確實讓城市的糧食安全進步較鄉村地區來的顯著與快速。
3.透過進口方式獲得玉米與小麥會比在中國本地生產來的更有競爭力。然而就稻米來說，本研究之證據則指出，其透過進口方式取得將會相較於中國本地生產有更高價的成本。
4.黃豆市場的自由化同時提升了中國在供應度與易得性兩大構面的糧食安全；但同時也讓其消費者暴露在較高的糧價浮動風險當中。
綜合以上，整體而言，本研究認為穀物市場的自由化，將是對於中國整體糧食安全狀態，有利大於弊之影響。

關鍵字

糧食安全 ； 中國大陸 ； 自由化 ； 自給自足 ； 黃豆

並列摘要

Because of China’s large population, growing level of affluence, unfavorable endowments of arable land and renewable fresh water resources, there has been much concern about its ability to ensure food its security in the coming years. One of the pillars of China’s food security program has been ensuring self-sufficiency in “strategic commodities.” These commodities include corn, wheat and rice, and until the late 1990s included soybeans and cotton. While China has done an admirable job of meeting its self-sufficiency goals, these policies have been somewhat problematic. Because China has an abundance of rural labor and a relative dearth of arable land, production costs for row crops in China are generally higher than elsewhere and it would often be cheaper for processors to import grains from the international markets. This paper then, seeks to evaluate the effects of China’s self-sufficiency policy on its national food security.
The paper first examines China’s food security situation by looking at the situation of supply and demand for corn, wheat and rice. Secondly, this study explores the accessibility component of food security by examining rural and urban incomes and their corresponding Engel’s coefficients. Next the study compares the costs to processors of imported grains versus grains procured domestically. Finally, the present paper evaluates how the liberalization of the grain markets would affect the availability and accessibility aspects of food security by evaluating the effects of the liberalization of the soybean market.
Results show that the availability aspect of China’s food security has been improving slowly but steadily in the five years between 2007 and 2011. Secondly, rising urban incomes have helped improve food security more rapidly for urban residents than for rural residents. There is reason to believe that corn and wheat imports would be competitive with domestically produced grains. The evidence indicates that rice imports, on the other hand, are too expensive to compete with domestically produced rice. Finally, liberalization of the soybean market helped improve food security in terms of both availability and accessibility, but it did expose China’s consumers to a greater level of price volatility. Overall, the benefits of grain market liberalization to food security appear to outweigh the drawbacks.

並列關鍵字

nternational grain markets ； liberalization ； grain self-sufficiency ； China ； agriculture

參考文獻

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