泰越稻米在印尼市場的價格分析

Price Analysis of Thailand and Vietnam Rice in Indonesian Market

蘇莉安(May 26, 2013)

指導教授 ： 張文宜博士 ； Prof. Ratya Anindita

國立屏東科技大學/管理學院/農企業管理系所/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6346/NPUST.2013.00218

摘要

稻米居於印尼糧食政策的首位，幾十年來自部份亞洲國家進口，1998年底開放市場後，私營進口商獲准進入國內市場，以期提升市場效能。泰國和越南為印尼稻米市場的兩大出口國，其價格可能對印尼國內價格具有顯著影響。本研究運用2000年1月至2012年12月的每月實際價格分析泰國和越南稻米在印尼的空間市場整合，並採用Johansen 共整合檢定檢測長期價格關係，短期價格關係則採用Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)。結果顯示泰國、越南和印尼稻米在印尼國內市場存在長期關聯性，VECM也顯示印尼的價格變化主要受季節性虛擬變數及2004-2005年的進口禁令影響，泰國和越南的稻米價格則主要受印尼前期價格及印尼進口禁令政策影響，越南稻米對長期均衡價格的調整速度比泰國快，但印尼的調整速度並不顯著。此外，衝擊反應函數顯示受到另一市場衝擊而造成的價格變化相對較小，變異數拆解則指出長期而言印尼對決定國內市場、泰國與越國的稻米價格影響最大。
稻米市場、價格分析、空間整合、Johansen共整合、VECM、衝擊反應、變異數拆解

關鍵字

稻米市場 ； 價格分析 ； 空間整合 ； Johansen共整合 ； VECM ； 衝擊反應 ； 變異數拆解

並列摘要

Rice gets top priority in Indonesian food policies. It has been imported from some Asian countries for decades. After liberalizing its rice market at the end of 1998, private importers are allowed to enter the domestic rice market. It is expected to bring about a better functioning of markets. Thailand and Vietnam are two main exporting countries in Indonesian rice market. Therefore, their price change may significantly affect domestic prices. This study investigates spatial market integration of Thailand and Vietnam rice market in Indonesia by using real price monthly data from January 2000 to December 2012. Johansen co-integration approach was employed to examine the long-run price relationship. To examine the short-term relationship among prices, we adopted Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The co-integration analysis reveals that there is existence of long-run relationship
among Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesian rice in Indonesian market. While, VECM indicates that price change in Indonesia is mainly influenced by its seasonal dummy and import ban in 2004 – 2005. Thailand and Vietnam rice price are mainly influenced by Indonesian price in the previous period and Indonesian import ban policies. The adjustment speed of Vietnam to long-run equilibrium is faster than Thailand; however adjustment speed of Indonesia to long-run equilibrium is not significant. In addition, impulse response function shows that price change at one market due to shock from another market was relatively small in this time period. Meanwhile, variance decomposition indicates that in the long-run, Indonesia has the most influence in determining rice price in its domestic market, Thailand, and also Vietnam.

並列關鍵字

rice market ； price analysis ； spatial integration ； Johansen co-integration ； VECM ； impulse response ； variance decomposition

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