山棕寮地滑地係位於東部海岸山脈之西側,西元2000年象神颱風來襲,造成本試驗區發生大面積滑動現象。本文係以池上鄉山棕寮地滑地為試驗區,利用現場所收集之數據進行分析,並利用時間序列法進行降雨及地下水位變化之探討,瞭解試驗區域內降雨及地下水相互間的影響。綜合觀測資料與分析結果歸納如下: 1.依照山棕寮地滑地之地層位移趨勢,當累積雨量達60mm時,發生地層位移變動之趨勢相對較高。 2.以時間序列法先以降雨及地下水迴歸後,進行降雨與地下水位預測模擬,可發現降雨歷程均勻且期間未有停止降雨情況者,預測之效果較佳。 3.由山棕寮地下水位觀測井變動分析,於累積降雨量達60mm後,其後6~8小時破壞潛勢增加。 4.利用2011年可利用之暴雨場次進行穩定分析驗證,可發現當累積降雨量達200mm時F.S.值即達到一般暴雨設計標準之1.20警戒限度,故累積雨量200mm應可作為本地區之警戒值。 5.邊坡穩定分析結果顯示,當累積降雨量達390mm時F.S.值即達到1.10疏散撤離級別;當累積降雨量達490mm時F.S.值即達到1.0臨界破壞潛勢級別,亦說明該地區已到達極不穩定情況。
Shanzongliao landslide located in the West of Taiwan seacoast sierra, in 2000, a large area of landslide was happened when XANGSANE typhoon border crossing. This research took Shanzongliao landslide as the experimental site, to collect data analysis, and use time series analysis to discuss the relationship of rainfall and groundwater. Some results from the research shown as follow: 1.There is a high potential of stratum displacement when the accumulation rainfall amount achieved 60mm. 2.Forecast result was better under the condition of uniform rainfall and 0mm rainfall didn’t appear. 3.Failure potential is highest 6 to 8 hours after the accumulation rainfall amount achieved 60mm. 4.According to the results of slope stability analysis, the experimental site reached the warning stage and the evacuation stage when rainfall amount reached 200mm. and 390mm respectively. There was a high failure potential and unstable condition in the experimental site when rainfall amount reached 490mm.