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  • 學位論文

資訊充分揭露下對不動產交易理性之研究-以臺灣建築業為例

The Research of Market Rationality Under Symmetrical Information in The Residential Construction Industry in Taiwan

指導教授 : 謝惠元

摘要


本研究以SCPE理論為基礎對產業行為之理性情況進行探討,目的主要是探討政府實施實價登錄及奢侈稅,其實施效果如何,以及在資訊揭露提高下,對不動產交易理性之影響及對建築業之績效的影響。本研究針對建築行為之理性面進行分析及探討,以SCPE理論為架構針對臺灣20個縣市自1999年至2012年共計280個觀察值進行迴歸分析,採Pooled Cross-Sectional Time-Series之方式進行分析。實證結果發現實價登錄與房價呈顯著正相關,顯示政策之執行未達原來抑制房價之效果,在資訊透明化下,反而助漲房價,表示在政策之推行上,仍應考慮其他市場投機因素。當資訊對稱下,在多頭的時候反而會助長漲勢,而在空頭時會助長跌勢,不是僅就政策面考慮,仍應考慮市場及心理面,所謂不完全理性。實價登錄與空屋數呈顯著負相關,顯示實價登錄的實施確實有影響建築業的效果面使得空屋數量降低,資訊對稱下,可以有效降低空屋的數量。奢侈稅與使用執照總樓地板面積呈顯著負相關,顯示奢侈稅的實行在技術面上有達到政府原本欲達到之目的。區域指數與建造執照總樓地板面積呈顯著正相關,可看出建築業建商在各區域的表現不同,且有供過於求之現象。 建議在實價登錄及奢侈稅之推行下,仍有必要做長期之觀察。非量化之因素仍應考慮,不是僅從供需量化因素來分析,因為還有其他的因素會造成價格、空屋、產業行為及績效的影響,如投資與投機的需求,不一定是自住之需求而已。針對個別理性而集體不理性時,本研究認為應該開啟理性窗口並運用競爭動態分析的角度,同時留意市場之動態、行為與反應來處理。

並列摘要


The research based on the Structure-Conduct-Performance-Effect model examines the performance of government applying the policies of real housing price registration and luxury tax. In addition, we investigate the impact of increasing the information disclosure on the rationality of transaction and the performance of the construction industry in Taiwan. A Pooled Cross-Sectional Time-Series of OLS and 2SLS is used to examine 20 Cities and Counties in Taiwan during 1999-2012 accounted for 280 observations. The empirical result found that although housing price fully disclosed the housing price did not decline. They were positively related indicating that the policy did not function to reduce the speculation and housing price. There were some other behavioral factors should be taken into account such as speculation, investment, inflation, and cultural consideration, implying that both behaviors in supply and demand sides were not completely rational in this industry. However housing price disclosure was negatively significant to vacancies, indicating the information effectively reducing the vacancies. As expected the luxury tax was negatively significant to approvals indicating that the luxury tax effectively reduced the constructions. Whereas the regional quotient was positively significant to the approvals, implying that regional development existed and some region apparently constructed more houses than population growth.   We suggest that real housing price disclosure and luxury tax need to observe under a longer period to see their effects. In addition, other behavioral factors should be considered in addition to the rationale of supply and demand model. There are factors such as investment, speculation, and other nonresidential demand influencing housing pricing, vacancies, construction behavior, and construction performance. This research suggests that underpinning competitive dynamic theory buyers or developer should consider market dynamic and take other peers’ behavior, and other peers’ response into account when making decision in order to open their group rationality in rational window.

參考文獻


22.陳宥里(2013),綠建築對建築產業之影響,國立屏東科技大學企
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被引用紀錄


邱建銘(2017)。居住安全因子對住宅價格之影響〔碩士論文,淡江大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6846%2fTKU.2017.00844

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