共同基金投資評估模式之研究-以2008金融海嘯為例

A Model for Evaluating Mutual Fund Investment to The Issued Financual Tsunami of 2008

邱淑芬(Shu-Fen Chiu)

指導教授 ： 許可達 ； 嚴宗銘

朝陽科技大學/管理學院/保險金融管理系/碩士(2010年)

摘要

摘要
近年來國內金融業隨著國內法令開放，財富管理業務漸與國際接軌，鑑於各種資訊管道發達，客戶對於投資理財的需求日益殷切，理財的商品也愈加多元化。主要分為三大區塊：保險、特定金錢信託(共同基金)及結構式商品(連動債)等等，在銀行的獲利結構中，理財商品是屬於無風險收益，盈虧均由投資人自負，雖然銀行放款業務是主要收入來源，但在目前的利率水準下，幾乎無利可圖，且須承擔違約風險，所以各銀行無不卯足全力，衝刺銀行無風險的手續費收入，在競爭的環境中，理財專員的力薦下，投資人往往盲目的買進，甚至投資人根本不清楚買到的投資商品是什麼?投資標的為何?只是聽從理財專員的建議，一窩蜂的搶進，因市場的多頭行情，幾乎可說是雖便買隨便賺，此一榮景一直到2007年美國發生了「次級房貸」危機，才如夢初醒，退出投資市場。
本研究係以國內某公營銀行共同基金投資人為對象，進行共同基金投資評估模式研究利用Logistic Regression作為分析方法，探討依變數停扣與否與各自變數間有無顯著差異，並找出顯著因子，供未來銀行發掘優質客戶之參考。
實證結果為全體樣本以Logistic Regression方法進行分析，結果顯示職業、投資偏好、投資目的、資金來源及投資期限等5項，均呈顯著差異。

關鍵字

次級房貸 ； Logistic Regression ； 共同基金 ； 金融海嘯

並列摘要

ABSTRACT

Clients have more requirements for investment and financial management commodity also even diversified because the domestic financial industry has been open along with the law in recent years, the wealth management service is much more international and information channel has been developed. Financial management commodity mainly divides into three Kinds: insurance, mutual fund and structure notes.

In the bank profit structure, financial management commodity belongs to non-risk income, and the profit and loss was proud by the investor. Although the loan service is the majority of income, there is no benefit to be gained nearly under the present interest rate standard and the bank has to take the risk of breaking contracts. Therefore, all bank do their best effort on non-risk’s handling charge income. However, investors only buy up blindly in the kind of competitive environment and under specialists’ recommends. Even though they can’t understand what commodity was boughten. What is the aim of investment? Most of investors were rush to buy commodity based on specialists’ suggestions and raked in mich money because of bull market. This kind of situation was ended up and investors withdrew this market until subprime mortgage in 2007.

This research is taken based on public bank mutual fund investor as an object to progress mutual fund investment evaluation model. Logistic regression was applied to be an analysis method to discuss significant difference between variables (stopping payments) and independent variables and then find out to be a reference resource for banks to detect high quality clients.

並列關鍵字

Logistic Regression ； Subprime mortgage ； Mutual Fund ； Financual Tsunami

參考文獻

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