應用SIMULEX模擬舊市區民眾避難時間之研究-以台北縣新莊市為例

Application of SIMULEX to Simulate Evacuation Time of Over-development City –Take Xin-Zhuang City as A Case Study

陳尹莉(Yin-li Chen)

指導教授 ： 包匡

朝陽科技大學/設計學院/建築及都市設計研究所/碩士(2010年)

摘要

都市過度發展，成為人口及經濟高度聚集的區域，若發生重大災害，都市居民的生命及財物損失將十分嚴重。都市中之舊市區發展較早，都市缺乏妥善的避難規劃，且區域內人口稠密、建築物結構老舊、道路狹窄及公共避難空間不足等。一旦災害發生，將會造成極為嚴重的損失，其影響更可能擴大蔓延至鄰近地區。由於大部分舊市區在短期內無法進行都市更新及整建，故對區域內民眾的避難安全實為都市防災中重要之一項議題。
本研究將以台北縣新莊市境內之舊市區為研究實證地區，並針對該地區目前現有之緊急避難據點進行研究，探討是否於災害發生時符合民眾之避難需求。藉由探討新莊市舊市區實質空間環境，及防救災避難規劃，及老舊社區居民逃生至避難空間之避難時間等項目，研究結果作為防災設施不足老舊社區未來改善避難道路及增設避難場所之借鏡。本研究以Simulex電腦軟體，模擬災害發生時，民眾以群體步行速度從居住處所經道路或通路抵達避難據點之時間。研究結果顯示新莊舊市區民眾因避難產生困難，顯示出避難途徑及避難場所功能不佳之處，期望對未來提出建議，改善或增設避難場所，以確保現行都市市民之安全。

關鍵字

臨時避難場所 ； Simulex模擬 ； 避難時間 ； 都市防災

並列摘要

As the highly development in the city, it became a dense population gathering and economic prosperity area. The old urban areas in the cities were developed for a long period of time. Their evacuation systems were insufficient in urban planning. High density of population, old buildings, narrow streets and lack temporary refuge areas in the area are the characters. If there is disaster occurred, these factors will cause tremendous damages and losses to the people and their properties. For the city government cannot proceed a renewal or rehabilitation in recent time, the people lived in old area still have to facing the potential danger of disasters. So, this is an important issue of urban disaster prevention for the concerning of the public safety.
The research take old urban area of the Xin-Zhuang city as experiment district to study the emergency evacuation system that included the evacuation routes and temporary refuge places. The research results could be reference for adjusting evacuation and adding evacuation refuge. This research used the computer software “Simulex” to simulate the people escaping from their living places to the refuge place in order to calculate the duration time of evacuation. Meanwhile to set up the characteristic of people''s behavior and the group people moving speed, the results reveal the shortage of temporary refuge places and inadequate of evacuation route systems. The research offered the suggestions about the refuge places settlements and route system improvement that ensuring the security of people living in old urban area.

並列關鍵字

Temporary refuge ； Evacuation time ； Urban disaster prevention ； Simulex simulation

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